I think most AI x-risk (in expectation) doesn’t lead to human extinction, but a noticeable fraction does
But a lot even of the fraction that leads to human extinction seems to me like it probably doesn’t count as “extinction” by the standards of this question, since it still has the earth-originating intelligence which can go out and do stuff in the universe
However, I sort of expect people to naturally count this as “extinction”?
Since it wasn’t cruxy for my rough overall position, I didn’t resolve this last question before voting, although maybe it would get me to tweak my position a little.
This is right. But to add even more complication:
I think most AI x-risk (in expectation) doesn’t lead to human extinction, but a noticeable fraction does
But a lot even of the fraction that leads to human extinction seems to me like it probably doesn’t count as “extinction” by the standards of this question, since it still has the earth-originating intelligence which can go out and do stuff in the universe
However, I sort of expect people to naturally count this as “extinction”?
Since it wasn’t cruxy for my rough overall position, I didn’t resolve this last question before voting, although maybe it would get me to tweak my position a little.