I think that that question would count Sam Bankman-Fried starting to give at the scale Good Ventures is giving as a positive resolution, and that some forecasters have that as a key consideration for their forecast (e.g., Peter Wildeford’s comment suggests that). Whereas I think you’re using this as evidence that there’ll be another donor at that scale, in addition to both Good Ventures and the FTX team people? So this might be double-counting?
(But I only had a quick look at both the Metaculus question and the relevant section of your post, so I might be wrong).
I think that that question would count Sam Bankman-Fried starting to give at the scale Good Ventures is giving as a positive resolution, and that some forecasters have that as a key consideration for their forecast (e.g., Peter Wildeford’s comment suggests that). Whereas I think you’re using this as evidence that there’ll be another donor at that scale, in addition to both Good Ventures and the FTX team people? So this might be double-counting?
(But I only had a quick look at both the Metaculus question and the relevant section of your post, so I might be wrong).
Ah good point. I only found the metaculus questions recently and haven’t thought about them as much.