(Check @Lauren Gilbert’s substack for further conversation on this thread)
Thank you for these wonderful stories @Lauren Gilbert. I love these brief bios, these conversations feel authentic and reflect the kinds of things I’ve heard from Ugandan immigrants before. I know stories like this probably shouldn’t update me in favour of a program like this, but they have.
Overall I do think the program is probably good, and possibly one of the best, but it does (along with high skilled immigration in general) have some of the highest potential downsides of any GHD intervention that remain largely unacknowledged, which irks me a little. I’ve harped on these 2 potentially large downsides a few times, and have yet to receive any response.
1. The best country-builders leaving the country.“You know when you meet someone and you can just tell they’re a leader? That’s how I felt meeting Jasmine”. Often the best and most enterprising people take the opportunites to leave. People that could have been country-changing business leaders, civil society leaders and politicians end up working an office job in Germany. There are potentially large down sides from pulling abroad even a few irreplacable potential country-builders.
Its debatable whether Malengo targets the “merely good, rather than the exceptional”. About 7.7% of Ugandans complete high school and about 2⁄3 of these get the 2x principal passes needed for the program. I would guess Malengo would then selects above-average candidates, so perhaps the top 1-4% of Ugandans academically are selected for this program. Whether that percent counts as exceptional or not I’m not sure. I do like though that Malengo makes an effort not to select the best students.
2. Remainer dissatisfaction could cause large scale reductions in wellbeing. Talking to West Africans I’ve felt a deep restlessness dissatisfaction when they know friends who have left and done better, while they still remain. In Nigeria it even has a name, “Japa” syndrome. Large numbers of people people spend much time, money and energy trying to leave the country. When everyone is trying to leave, no-one is trying to build their country In Nigeria they call it “Japa” In Uganda , mass emigration is not yet a reality yet so this. If more programs like Mulago grow and immigration becomes more possible, a similar situation could happen in East Africa.
Because of no. 1 above, I’m a bigger fan of low/mid skilled immigration like the Malengo Kenyan nurse program, as remittances will likely be similar-ish and that downside disappears.
A few other points.
1. It’s impossible that these families of kids on this program were making only $42 a month on average as Malengo stated. How was this calculated? If they just asked the families they could have given this absurd number to increase their chances I suppose. For family income I would conservatively guess these families would average 5x-10x this. Unless their kids are sponsored, almost no-one in Uganda who sends kids to high school would earn only $42 Each year of high school in Uganda costs minimum $700 a year for one person. University is $1500+. Both your first and third case here managed/would have managed university- and that’s just fees for one family member.
Even most families in the poorest, most remote places where OneDay Health works earn more than $42 a month. The World Bank has revised their “extreme poverty” line to $90 a month. I doubt many (if any) of these families that have managed to send their kids to high school earn that little. Its not the biggest deal, but Malengo should probably fox this $42 number as its a long way from the truth.
2. I absolutely love that Malengo have embedded an RCT into this. I suspect the differences will be staggering between incomes and opportunities—there’s no real reason to think otherwise. A small caveat is that Ugandan incomes are often extremely low 0-55 years after graduating university, then many can increase quite steeply after that (often 4x − 10x_ more than after university graduation). Many friends here worked for $60 a month after graduating then moved on to $600+ a month NGO/Government/Business jobs later. On the other hand German salaries will likely incrementally improve. Despite this there will still obviously be huge differences 5-10 years after graduation.
3. if the first cohort was 2021 then shouldn’t some have graduated by now and be working?
(Check @Lauren Gilbert’s substack for further conversation on this thread)
Thank you for these wonderful stories @Lauren Gilbert. I love these brief bios, these conversations feel authentic and reflect the kinds of things I’ve heard from Ugandan immigrants before. I know stories like this probably shouldn’t update me in favour of a program like this, but they have.
Overall I do think the program is probably good, and possibly one of the best, but it does (along with high skilled immigration in general) have some of the highest potential downsides of any GHD intervention that remain largely unacknowledged, which irks me a little. I’ve harped on these 2 potentially large downsides a few times, and have yet to receive any response.
1. The best country-builders leaving the country. “You know when you meet someone and you can just tell they’re a leader? That’s how I felt meeting Jasmine”. Often the best and most enterprising people take the opportunites to leave. People that could have been country-changing business leaders, civil society leaders and politicians end up working an office job in Germany. There are potentially large down sides from pulling abroad even a few irreplacable potential country-builders.
Its debatable whether Malengo targets the “merely good, rather than the exceptional”. About 7.7% of Ugandans complete high school and about 2⁄3 of these get the 2x principal passes needed for the program. I would guess Malengo would then selects above-average candidates, so perhaps the top 1-4% of Ugandans academically are selected for this program. Whether that percent counts as exceptional or not I’m not sure. I do like though that Malengo makes an effort not to select the best students.
2. Remainer dissatisfaction could cause large scale reductions in wellbeing. Talking to West Africans I’ve felt a deep restlessness dissatisfaction when they know friends who have left and done better, while they still remain. In Nigeria it even has a name, “Japa” syndrome. Large numbers of people people spend much time, money and energy trying to leave the country. When everyone is trying to leave, no-one is trying to build their country In Nigeria they call it “Japa” In Uganda , mass emigration is not yet a reality yet so this. If more programs like Mulago grow and immigration becomes more possible, a similar situation could happen in East Africa.
Because of no. 1 above, I’m a bigger fan of low/mid skilled immigration like the Malengo Kenyan nurse program, as remittances will likely be similar-ish and that downside disappears.
A few other points.
1. It’s impossible that these families of kids on this program were making only $42 a month on average as Malengo stated. How was this calculated? If they just asked the families they could have given this absurd number to increase their chances I suppose. For family income I would conservatively guess these families would average 5x-10x this. Unless their kids are sponsored, almost no-one in Uganda who sends kids to high school would earn only $42 Each year of high school in Uganda costs minimum $700 a year for one person. University is $1500+. Both your first and third case here managed/would have managed university- and that’s just fees for one family member.
Even most families in the poorest, most remote places where OneDay Health works earn more than $42 a month. The World Bank has revised their “extreme poverty” line to $90 a month. I doubt many (if any) of these families that have managed to send their kids to high school earn that little. Its not the biggest deal, but Malengo should probably fox this $42 number as its a long way from the truth.
2. I absolutely love that Malengo have embedded an RCT into this. I suspect the differences will be staggering between incomes and opportunities—there’s no real reason to think otherwise. A small caveat is that Ugandan incomes are often extremely low 0-55 years after graduating university, then many can increase quite steeply after that (often 4x − 10x_ more than after university graduation). Many friends here worked for $60 a month after graduating then moved on to $600+ a month NGO/Government/Business jobs later. On the other hand German salaries will likely incrementally improve. Despite this there will still obviously be huge differences 5-10 years after graduation.
3. if the first cohort was 2021 then shouldn’t some have graduated by now and be working?