I’m fine with CEA’s, my problem is that this seems to have been trotted out selectively in order to dismiss Anthony’s proposal in particular, even though EA discusses and sometimes funds proposals that make the supposed “16 extra deaths” look like peanuts by comparison.
The Wytham abbey project has been sold, so we know it’s overall impact was to throw something like a million pounds down the drain (when you factor in stamp duty, etc). I think it’s deeply unfair to frame Anthony’s proposal as possibly letting 16 people die, while not doing the same for Wytham, which (in this framing) definitively let 180 people die.
Also, the cost effectiveness analysis hasn’t even been done yet! I find it kind of suspect that this is getting such a hostile response when EA insiders propose ineffective projects all the time with much less pushback. There are also differing factors here worth considering, like helping EA build links with grassroots orgs, indirectly spreading EA ideas to organisers in the third world, etc. EA spends plenty of money on “community building”, would this not count?
The HPMOR thing is a side note, but I vehemently disagree with your analysis, and the initial grant, because the counterfactual in this case is not doing nothing, it’s sending them a link to the website where HPMOR is hosted for free for everybody, which costs nothing. Plus HPMOR only tangentially advocates for EA causes anyway! A huge number of people have read HPMOR, and only a small proportion have gone on to become EA members. Your numbers are absurdly overoptimistic.
Disclaimer I don’t know much about the HPMOR thing—for example I didn’t know it only tangentially plugged EA. I was just giving a 2 minute example of the kind of analysis you might do (obviously with better info then I had), and that it is possible to do that CEA. I wasn’t trying to justify the grant at all my apologies if it came across that way!
Also I don’t think this post is getting that hostile a response?
I’m fine with CEA’s, my problem is that this seems to have been trotted out selectively in order to dismiss Anthony’s proposal in particular, even though EA discusses and sometimes funds proposals that make the supposed “16 extra deaths” look like peanuts by comparison.
The Wytham abbey project has been sold, so we know it’s overall impact was to throw something like a million pounds down the drain (when you factor in stamp duty, etc). I think it’s deeply unfair to frame Anthony’s proposal as possibly letting 16 people die, while not doing the same for Wytham, which (in this framing) definitively let 180 people die.
Also, the cost effectiveness analysis hasn’t even been done yet! I find it kind of suspect that this is getting such a hostile response when EA insiders propose ineffective projects all the time with much less pushback. There are also differing factors here worth considering, like helping EA build links with grassroots orgs, indirectly spreading EA ideas to organisers in the third world, etc. EA spends plenty of money on “community building”, would this not count?
The HPMOR thing is a side note, but I vehemently disagree with your analysis, and the initial grant, because the counterfactual in this case is not doing nothing, it’s sending them a link to the website where HPMOR is hosted for free for everybody, which costs nothing. Plus HPMOR only tangentially advocates for EA causes anyway! A huge number of people have read HPMOR, and only a small proportion have gone on to become EA members. Your numbers are absurdly overoptimistic.
I also probably “disagree” with my analysis
Disclaimer I don’t know much about the HPMOR thing—for example I didn’t know it only tangentially plugged EA. I was just giving a 2 minute example of the kind of analysis you might do (obviously with better info then I had), and that it is possible to do that CEA. I wasn’t trying to justify the grant at all my apologies if it came across that way!
Also I don’t think this post is getting that hostile a response?