This news seems like it increases the value of marginal donations this year relative to what we expected. Are 2022 donations also likely to be (much) more valuable relative to 2023? Is donating in December 2022 too late to take advantage of this effect?
Nathaniel/Imma, we agree with Alexander that giving in December 2022 would not be significantly less impactful than giving now. We think the cost-effectiveness of opportunities we’ll support in 2023 will probably be similar to those in 2022. If you expect to give in only one of those years, we’d suggest giving in 2022, so that donation can start having an impact earlier, but this decision would be largely up to your individual giving plans.
This news seems like it increases the value of marginal donations this year relative to what we expected. Are 2022 donations also likely to be (much) more valuable relative to 2023? Is donating in December 2022 too late to take advantage of this effect?
Strong upvote because this question is action relevant.
Maybe Alexander Berger’s thoughts are helpful?
GiveWell could answer more confidently but FWIW my take is:
-December 2022 is totally fine relative to today.
-I currently expect this increase in marginal cost-effectiveness to persist in future years, but with a lot of uncertainty/low confidence.
Nathaniel/Imma, we agree with Alexander that giving in December 2022 would not be significantly less impactful than giving now. We think the cost-effectiveness of opportunities we’ll support in 2023 will probably be similar to those in 2022. If you expect to give in only one of those years, we’d suggest giving in 2022, so that donation can start having an impact earlier, but this decision would be largely up to your individual giving plans.