Nathaniel/Imma, we agree with Alexander that giving in December 2022 would not be significantly less impactful than giving now. We think the cost-effectiveness of opportunities we’ll support in 2023 will probably be similar to those in 2022. If you expect to give in only one of those years, we’d suggest giving in 2022, so that donation can start having an impact earlier, but this decision would be largely up to your individual giving plans.
Strong upvote because this question is action relevant.
Maybe Alexander Berger’s thoughts are helpful?
GiveWell could answer more confidently but FWIW my take is:
-December 2022 is totally fine relative to today.
-I currently expect this increase in marginal cost-effectiveness to persist in future years, but with a lot of uncertainty/low confidence.
Nathaniel/Imma, we agree with Alexander that giving in December 2022 would not be significantly less impactful than giving now. We think the cost-effectiveness of opportunities we’ll support in 2023 will probably be similar to those in 2022. If you expect to give in only one of those years, we’d suggest giving in 2022, so that donation can start having an impact earlier, but this decision would be largely up to your individual giving plans.