Whether simulation shutdown is a good reason not to say such things would seem to depend on how you model the possibility of simulation shutdown.
One naive model would say that there is a 1/n chance that the argument that such a risk exists is correct, and if so, there is 1/m annual risk, otherwise, there is 0 annual risk from simulation shutdown. In such a model, the value of the future endowment would only be decreased n-fold. Whereas if you thought that there was definitely a 1/(mn) annual risk (i.e. the annual risk is IID) then that risk would diminish the value of the cosmic endowment by many OoM.
Whether simulation shutdown is a good reason not to say such things would seem to depend on how you model the possibility of simulation shutdown.
One naive model would say that there is a 1/n chance that the argument that such a risk exists is correct, and if so, there is 1/m annual risk, otherwise, there is 0 annual risk from simulation shutdown. In such a model, the value of the future endowment would only be decreased n-fold. Whereas if you thought that there was definitely a 1/(mn) annual risk (i.e. the annual risk is IID) then that risk would diminish the value of the cosmic endowment by many OoM.
I’d use reasoning like this, so simulation concerns don’t have to be ~certain to drastically reduce EV gaps between local and future oriented actions.