It might be interesting for someone to think more about multi-arm bandit problems, since it seems like it could be a good analogy for cause selection. An approximate solution is to exploit your best opportunity 90% of the time, then randomly select another opportunity to explore 10% of the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-armed_bandit
I’m doing some research along these lines with Bayesian Bandits.
I’m doing some research along these lines with Bayesian Bandits.