“… my lead indication is not one of those 3 (Pneumonia, COPD, Asthma), but the further indications I’m testing with my approach does include one of those!”
So this may eventually lead to something to help with a like 2.5%-4.4% cause of death disease.
So I don’t know if it really passes a GiveWell All Grants cost effectiveness threshold at this point without more strong commitment to target something significant like Pneumonia.
“If everything went perfectly, from this early stage research to clinical trials to broad deployment, we’d treat about 5% of the current causes of death (most but not all of the 7% chronic respiratory disease category, not pneumonia). It could theoretically be higher if there are e.g. positive effects on cardiovascular disease from healthy lungs, but those kinds of nebulous benefits are hard to predict.
To be clear though I’m sure you know, like all preclinical research it is many millions of dollars and very high chance of failure away from hitting that 5%.”
MRNA lung researcher replied:
“… my lead indication is not one of those 3 (Pneumonia, COPD, Asthma), but the further indications I’m testing with my approach does include one of those!”
So this may eventually lead to something to help with a like 2.5%-4.4% cause of death disease.
So I don’t know if it really passes a GiveWell All Grants cost effectiveness threshold at this point without more strong commitment to target something significant like Pneumonia.
More from the researcher…
“If everything went perfectly, from this early stage research to clinical trials to broad deployment, we’d treat about 5% of the current causes of death (most but not all of the 7% chronic respiratory disease category, not pneumonia). It could theoretically be higher if there are e.g. positive effects on cardiovascular disease from healthy lungs, but those kinds of nebulous benefits are hard to predict.
To be clear though I’m sure you know, like all preclinical research it is many millions of dollars and very high chance of failure away from hitting that 5%.”