Hi John, thanks for the very detailed response. My claim was that ecosystem shift is a “contributor” to existential risk—my claim is that it should be examined to assess the extent to which it is a “risk factor” that increases other risks, one of a set of causes that may overwhelm societal resilience, and a mechanism by which other risks cause damage.
As I said in the first link, “humanity relies on ecosystems to provide ecosystem services, such as food, water, and energy. Sudden catastrophic ecosystem shifts could pose equally catastrophic consequences to human societies. Indeed environmental changes are associated with many historical cases of societal ‘collapses’; though the likelihood of occurrence of such events and the extent of their socioeconomic consequences remains uncertain.”
I can’t respond to your comment at the length it deserves, but we will be publishing papers on the potential link between ecosystem shifts and existential risk in the future, and I hope that they will address some of your points.
I’ll email you with some related stuff.
There are lots of risk factors for societal resilience to catastrophes, including all contemporary political and economic problems. The key question is how much of a risk they are and I have yet to see any evidence that biodiversity loss is among the top ones.