I’m considering elaborating on this in a full post, but I will do so quickly here as well: It appears to me that there’s potentially a misunderstanding here, leading to unnecessary disagreement.
I think that the nature of forecasting in the context of decision-making within governments and other large institutions is very different from what is typically seen on platforms like Manifold, PolyMarket, or even Metaculus. I agree that these platforms often treat forecasting more as a game or hobby, which is fine, but very different from the kind of questions policymakers want to see answered.
I (and I hope this aligns with OP’s vision) would want to see a greater emphasis on advancing forecasting specifically tailored for decision-makers. This focus diverges significantly from the casual or hobbyist approach observed on these platforms. The questions you ask should probably not be public, and they are usually far more boring. In practice, it looks more like an advanced Delphi method than it looks like Manifold Markets. I’m somewhat surprised to see interpretations of this post suggesting a need for more funding in the type of forecasting that is more recreational, which, in my view, is and should not be a priority.
E: One obvious exemption to the dichotomy I describe above is that the more fun forecasting platforms can be a good way of identifying Superforecasters good forecasters.
I’m considering elaborating on this in a full post, but I will do so quickly here as well: It appears to me that there’s potentially a misunderstanding here, leading to unnecessary disagreement.
I think that the nature of forecasting in the context of decision-making within governments and other large institutions is very different from what is typically seen on platforms like Manifold, PolyMarket, or even Metaculus. I agree that these platforms often treat forecasting more as a game or hobby, which is fine, but very different from the kind of questions policymakers want to see answered.
I (and I hope this aligns with OP’s vision) would want to see a greater emphasis on advancing forecasting specifically tailored for decision-makers. This focus diverges significantly from the casual or hobbyist approach observed on these platforms. The questions you ask should probably not be public, and they are usually far more boring. In practice, it looks more like an advanced Delphi method than it looks like Manifold Markets. I’m somewhat surprised to see interpretations of this post suggesting a need for more funding in the type of forecasting that is more recreational, which, in my view, is and should not be a priority.
E: One obvious exemption to the dichotomy I describe above is that the more fun forecasting platforms can be a good way of identifying
Superforecastersgood forecasters.