At the risk of damaging my networks in EA, I am inclined to tentatively agree with some of your comment. Disclaimer here that I have very little interaction with forecasting for various reasons, so this is more of a general comment than anything else.
I think one of the major problems I see in EA as a whole is a fairly loose definition of ‘impact’. Often I see five or six groups using vast sums of money and talent to produce research or predictions that are shared and reviewed between each other and then hosted on the websites but never seem to actually be implemented anywhere. There’s no external (of EA) stakeholder participation, no follow-up to check for changed trends, no update on how this affects the real-world outside of EA circles.
I don’t always think paying clients are the best measurement system for impact, but I do think there needs to be a much higher focus on bridging the connection between high-quality forecasting and real-world decision-makers.
Obviously this doesn’t apply everywhere in EA, and there are lots and lots of exemptions, but I do think your comment has merit.
Obviously this comment is very true and correct, but it doesn’t say great things about the culture of EA that people preface the most milquetoast comments like this with disclaimers about not wanting to blow up their friendships!
I don’t think there’s actually a risk of CAISID damaging their EA networks here, fwiw, and I don’t think CAISID wanted to include their friendships in this statement.
My sense is that most humans are generally worried about disagreeing with what they perceive to be a social group’s opinion, so I spontaneously don’t think there’s much specific to EA to explain here.
You are correct in that I was referring more to the natural risks associated with disagreeing with a major funder in a public space (even though OP have a reputation for taking criticism very well), and wasn’t referring to friendships. I could well have been more clear, and that’s on me.
Oh really? Because in typical male-dominated social networks, there are usually pretty high levels of internal disagreement, some of it fairly sharp. Go on any other forum that isn’t moderated to within an inch of its life by a team that somehow costs 2 million a year, and where everyone isn’t chasing one billionaire’s money!
At the risk of damaging my networks in EA, I am inclined to tentatively agree with some of your comment. Disclaimer here that I have very little interaction with forecasting for various reasons, so this is more of a general comment than anything else.
I think one of the major problems I see in EA as a whole is a fairly loose definition of ‘impact’. Often I see five or six groups using vast sums of money and talent to produce research or predictions that are shared and reviewed between each other and then hosted on the websites but never seem to actually be implemented anywhere. There’s no external (of EA) stakeholder participation, no follow-up to check for changed trends, no update on how this affects the real-world outside of EA circles.
I don’t always think paying clients are the best measurement system for impact, but I do think there needs to be a much higher focus on bridging the connection between high-quality forecasting and real-world decision-makers.
Obviously this doesn’t apply everywhere in EA, and there are lots and lots of exemptions, but I do think your comment has merit.
I find the statement is more precise if you put “longtermism” where “EA” is. Is that your sense as well?
I think that’s a good modification of my initial point, you may well be right.
Obviously this comment is very true and correct, but it doesn’t say great things about the culture of EA that people preface the most milquetoast comments like this with disclaimers about not wanting to blow up their friendships!
I don’t think there’s actually a risk of CAISID damaging their EA networks here, fwiw, and I don’t think CAISID wanted to include their friendships in this statement.
My sense is that most humans are generally worried about disagreeing with what they perceive to be a social group’s opinion, so I spontaneously don’t think there’s much specific to EA to explain here.
You are correct in that I was referring more to the natural risks associated with disagreeing with a major funder in a public space (even though OP have a reputation for taking criticism very well), and wasn’t referring to friendships. I could well have been more clear, and that’s on me.
Oh really? Because in typical male-dominated social networks, there are usually pretty high levels of internal disagreement, some of it fairly sharp. Go on any other forum that isn’t moderated to within an inch of its life by a team that somehow costs 2 million a year, and where everyone isn’t chasing one billionaire’s money!