Thanks for sharing. It’s a start, but it’s certainly not a proven Theory of Change. For example, Tetlock himself said that nebulous long-term forecasts are hard to do because there’s no feedback loop. Hence, a prediction market on an existential risk will be inherently flawed.
I don’t think that really works. You can get feedback from 5 years in 5 years. Metaculus already has some suggestions as to people who are good 5 year forecasters.
Thanks for sharing. It’s a start, but it’s certainly not a proven Theory of Change. For example, Tetlock himself said that nebulous long-term forecasts are hard to do because there’s no feedback loop. Hence, a prediction market on an existential risk will be inherently flawed.
I don’t think that really works. You can get feedback from 5 years in 5 years. Metaculus already has some suggestions as to people who are good 5 year forecasters.
None of the above are prediction markets.