FYI, just wrote a small piece on “Higher-order forecasts”, which I see as the equivalent to derivatives. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PB57prp5kEMDgwJsm/higher-order-forecastsI agree they can help with efficiency.
I feel like the prediction-markets themselves are best modeled as derivative markets. And then you are talking about second-order derivative markets here. But IDK, mostly sounds like semantics.
Yea, that’s a reasonable way of looking at it. Agreed it is just semantics.As semantics though, my guess is that “nth-order forecasts” will be more intuitive to most people than something like “n-1th order derivatives”.
FYI, just wrote a small piece on “Higher-order forecasts”, which I see as the equivalent to derivatives. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PB57prp5kEMDgwJsm/higher-order-forecasts
I agree they can help with efficiency.
I feel like the prediction-markets themselves are best modeled as derivative markets. And then you are talking about second-order derivative markets here. But IDK, mostly sounds like semantics.
Yea, that’s a reasonable way of looking at it. Agreed it is just semantics.
As semantics though, my guess is that “nth-order forecasts” will be more intuitive to most people than something like “n-1th order derivatives”.