Thanks for linkposting this as I might not have seen it otherwise. FWIW, my own intuition is that work like this is among the most marginally valuable things we can do. Here, “work like this” roughly means something like “build a legible model with implications for something that’s clearly an important parameter when thinking about the long-term future and, crucially, have some way to empirically ground that model”. However, I didn’t look at this model in detail yet and so cannot currently comment on its specific predictions.
Thanks for linkposting this as I might not have seen it otherwise. FWIW, my own intuition is that work like this is among the most marginally valuable things we can do. Here, “work like this” roughly means something like “build a legible model with implications for something that’s clearly an important parameter when thinking about the long-term future and, crucially, have some way to empirically ground that model”. However, I didn’t look at this model in detail yet and so cannot currently comment on its specific predictions.