(Caveat: Slightly self-promoting, sorry, but I hope it’s germane/helpful.) By the way, on the animal welfare forecasting front, see Support Metaculus’ First Animal-Focused Forecasting Tournament and Rethinking the Future of Cultured Meat: An Unjournal Evaluation. I’d leave room for some doubt as to whether the “clean meat forecasting” work led to updates in the right direction. We’re trying to take the next steps on this with a workshop involving some belief elicitation and forecasting (workshop page, belief elicitation page).
(Caveat: Slightly self-promoting, sorry, but I hope it’s germane/helpful.) By the way, on the animal welfare forecasting front, see Support Metaculus’ First Animal-Focused Forecasting Tournament and Rethinking the Future of Cultured Meat: An Unjournal Evaluation. I’d leave room for some doubt as to whether the “clean meat forecasting” work led to updates in the right direction.
We’re trying to take the next steps on this with a workshop involving some belief elicitation and forecasting (workshop page, belief elicitation page).