“Prediction markets are increasingly being cited by government officials, and the public is paying more attention to them than ever before. Much of the impact for prediction markets specifically seems negative (e.g. via incentivizing gambling on low-value topics), but the broader cultural shift suggests there may be an opportunity for better uses of forecasting to enter public consciousness as well.”
I think that this is a reason for pessimism on impact, not optimism. Kalshi and Polymarket are primarily sports gambling platforms by volume, immune to state regulation for reasons that may, in the perspective of a cynic, be related to them paying Donald Trump Jr. undisclosed sums of money for undisclosed quantities of work. This does not, I think, inspire particular trust in their efficacy or accuracy. The new legislative push could shift this (I haven’t dug into it deeply), but by default I expect the shift from “odd thing some experts claim is good” to “the tool for corruption, leaking military secrets, insider trading, and sports gambling” to worsen perceptions of accuracy (broadly defined halo effect).
(COI flag: I have an application out with FRI)
“Prediction markets are increasingly being cited by government officials, and the public is paying more attention to them than ever before. Much of the impact for prediction markets specifically seems negative (e.g. via incentivizing gambling on low-value topics), but the broader cultural shift suggests there may be an opportunity for better uses of forecasting to enter public consciousness as well.”
I think that this is a reason for pessimism on impact, not optimism. Kalshi and Polymarket are primarily sports gambling platforms by volume, immune to state regulation for reasons that may, in the perspective of a cynic, be related to them paying Donald Trump Jr. undisclosed sums of money for undisclosed quantities of work. This does not, I think, inspire particular trust in their efficacy or accuracy. The new legislative push could shift this (I haven’t dug into it deeply), but by default I expect the shift from “odd thing some experts claim is good” to “the tool for corruption, leaking military secrets, insider trading, and sports gambling” to worsen perceptions of accuracy (broadly defined halo effect).