I think that this incorrectly conflates prediction markets and collective decision making.
(Prediction) markets are (theoretically) effective because folks that are able to reliably predict correctly will end up getting more money, and there are incentives in place for correct predictions to be made. It seems that the incentives for correct decision making are far weaker in collective decision making, and I don’t see any positive feedback loop where folks that are better at noticing impactful projects will get their opinions weighted more highly.
I think that if you put those feedback systems in place, it ends up rapidly looking much more like the situation as it is today than what most folks would call collective decision making.
Thanks for the feedback Dan. Maybe I’m using the vocabulary incorrectly—does collective specifically mean 1 person 1 vote? I do specifically avoid saying democratic and mention market-based decision making in the first sentence.
It’s not at all obvious to me that putting market-based feedback systems in place would look like the funding situation today. I think it’s worth pushing back on the assumption that EA’s current funding structure rewards the best performers in terms of asset allocation.
Fair point! I was assuming that by collective decision making you meant much closer to 1 person 1 vote, but if it’s well defined term I’m not sure of the definition.
I haven’t heard much discussion on a market-based feedback system, and I’d be very interested in seeing it tried. Perhaps for legal or technical reasons it wouldn’t work out super well (similar to current prediction markets), but it seems well worth the experiment.
I think that this incorrectly conflates prediction markets and collective decision making.
(Prediction) markets are (theoretically) effective because folks that are able to reliably predict correctly will end up getting more money, and there are incentives in place for correct predictions to be made. It seems that the incentives for correct decision making are far weaker in collective decision making, and I don’t see any positive feedback loop where folks that are better at noticing impactful projects will get their opinions weighted more highly.
I think that if you put those feedback systems in place, it ends up rapidly looking much more like the situation as it is today than what most folks would call collective decision making.
Thanks for the feedback Dan. Maybe I’m using the vocabulary incorrectly—does collective specifically mean 1 person 1 vote? I do specifically avoid saying democratic and mention market-based decision making in the first sentence.
It’s not at all obvious to me that putting market-based feedback systems in place would look like the funding situation today. I think it’s worth pushing back on the assumption that EA’s current funding structure rewards the best performers in terms of asset allocation.
Fair point! I was assuming that by collective decision making you meant much closer to 1 person 1 vote, but if it’s well defined term I’m not sure of the definition.
I haven’t heard much discussion on a market-based feedback system, and I’d be very interested in seeing it tried. Perhaps for legal or technical reasons it wouldn’t work out super well (similar to current prediction markets), but it seems well worth the experiment.