Interventions that increase the set of well-intentioned + capable people also seem quite robust to cluelessness, because they allow for more error correction at each timestep on the way to the far future.
Rationality training programs like CFAR & Paradigm Academy are aimed at increasing the number of well-intentioned + capable people.
The psychedelic experience also seems like a plausible lever on increasing capability (via reducing negative self-talk & other mental blocks) and improving intentions (via ego dissolution changing one’s metaphysical assumptions).
I compare the mechanisms of impact of the psychedelic experience and of programs like CFAR & Paradigm below.
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To sum up, under a long-termist view, psychedelic interventions are plausibly in the same ballpark of effectiveness of other interventions that increase the set of well-intentioned + capable people. This is because these interventions seem quite robust to consequentialist cluelessness – the extreme difficulty of confidently assessing far-future consequences of today’s actions.
in terms of augmenting humans, my impression is that genetic engineering is by far the most effective intervention. my understanding is that we’re currently making a lot of progress in that area, yet some important research aspects seem neglected, and could have a transformative impact on the world.
There are currently several legal, high-quality psychedelic modalities on offer that I would be personally excited to work with (1, 2, 3, 4). Many more will be coming online within the next 5 years.
I haven’t heard of any genetic engineering interventions on the market that are currently having a transformative impact, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable personally participating in genetic engineering until it was way more battle-tested.
Humans have been using psychedelic healing modalities to good effect for thousands of years – that track record plus what we know from the research about their risk/reward profile makes me feel comfortable working with them (in a respectful way).
Genetic engineering doesn’t seem to have a comparable track record or a comparable evidence base.
so am understanding you have short AI timelines, and so don’t think genetic engineering would have time to pay off, but psychedelics would, and that you think it’s of similar relevance as working directly on the problem
I feel like the burden of proof is on you, no? how will psychedelics help avoid astronomical waste?
From the original post:
oh, by bad. apologies. thanks for the quote!
in terms of augmenting humans, my impression is that genetic engineering is by far the most effective intervention. my understanding is that we’re currently making a lot of progress in that area, yet some important research aspects seem neglected, and could have a transformative impact on the world.
I wonder if you disagree
Yes, I disagree.
There are currently several legal, high-quality psychedelic modalities on offer that I would be personally excited to work with (1, 2, 3, 4). Many more will be coming online within the next 5 years.
I haven’t heard of any genetic engineering interventions on the market that are currently having a transformative impact, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable personally participating in genetic engineering until it was way more battle-tested.
Humans have been using psychedelic healing modalities to good effect for thousands of years – that track record plus what we know from the research about their risk/reward profile makes me feel comfortable working with them (in a respectful way).
Genetic engineering doesn’t seem to have a comparable track record or a comparable evidence base.
thanks for your answer!
You get humans from primates with genetic modifications, not psychedelic :)
No intentionality though, just a blind process over millennia.
With intentionality, you can go from birds to 747s and F-16s in 70 years.
so am understanding you have short AI timelines, and so don’t think genetic engineering would have time to pay off, but psychedelics would, and that you think it’s of similar relevance as working directly on the problem