Thanks for this post!
I’ve been thinking a lot about related topics lately. I haven’t written anything very polished yet, but here are some rough things you or readers of this post may find interesting (in descending order of predicted worth-checking-out-ness):
A presentation on Nuclear risk research, forecasting, & impact
The first 15 mins is mostly about nuclear risk itself, but the rest is more about forecasting
Slides here
Replacing part of our research process with Metaculus tournaments [rough notes]
Slides from a quickly prepared presentation on How crowdsourced forecasting could guide, complement, or replace parts of your(?) research
Less directly relevant:
A presentation on Aggregating & inferring from x-risk estimates
A presentation on The importance and challenges of estimating existential risk
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Thanks for this post!
I’ve been thinking a lot about related topics lately. I haven’t written anything very polished yet, but here are some rough things you or readers of this post may find interesting (in descending order of predicted worth-checking-out-ness):
A presentation on Nuclear risk research, forecasting, & impact
The first 15 mins is mostly about nuclear risk itself, but the rest is more about forecasting
Slides here
Replacing part of our research process with Metaculus tournaments [rough notes]
Slides from a quickly prepared presentation on How crowdsourced forecasting could guide, complement, or replace parts of your(?) research
Less directly relevant:
A presentation on Aggregating & inferring from x-risk estimates
A presentation on The importance and challenges of estimating existential risk