Nice point! In The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), domain experts forecasted the risk of an engineered pathogen causing extinction by 2100 to be 1 % (Table 3). However, it is worth noting the sample of experts may not be representative:
“The sample drew heavily from the Effective Altruism (EA) community: about 42% of experts and 9% of superforecasters reported that they had attended an EA meetup. In this report, we separately present forecasts from domain experts and non-domain experts on each question.”
Nice point! In The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), domain experts forecasted the risk of an engineered pathogen causing extinction by 2100 to be 1 % (Table 3). However, it is worth noting the sample of experts may not be representative: