We saw in Parts 9-11 of this series that most experts are deeply skeptical of Ord’s claim
How is it being decided that “most experts” think this? I took a look and part 10 referenced two different papers with a total of 7 authors and a panel of four experts brought together by one of those authors—it doesn’t seem clear to me from this that this view is representative of the majority of experts in the space.
Nice point! In The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), domain experts forecasted the risk of an engineered pathogen causing extinction by 2100 to be 1 % (Table 3). However, it is worth noting the sample of experts may not be representative:
“The sample drew heavily from the Effective Altruism (EA) community: about 42% of experts and 9% of superforecasters reported that they had attended an EA meetup. In this report, we separately present forecasts from domain experts and non-domain experts on each question.”
How is it being decided that “most experts” think this? I took a look and part 10 referenced two different papers with a total of 7 authors and a panel of four experts brought together by one of those authors—it doesn’t seem clear to me from this that this view is representative of the majority of experts in the space.
Nice point! In The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), domain experts forecasted the risk of an engineered pathogen causing extinction by 2100 to be 1 % (Table 3). However, it is worth noting the sample of experts may not be representative: