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Betting

TagLast edit: 9 Sep 2025 20:28 UTC by Aaron Gertler šŸ”ø

Provisional tag — moderators may want to change the name, or delete this if it doesn’t seem separate enough from the ā€œForecastingā€ tag. Could also be ā€œbetting on beliefsā€, though that still isn’t very specific.

Some people use betting as a way to signal the strength of their views; they might offer a bet as a way to identify a crux in a debate, or challenge a critic they view as insincere.

This tag tracks posts where people make public bets on their beliefs (or discuss the practice of doing so).

How preĀ­dicĀ­tion marĀ­kets can creĀ­ate harmĀ­ful outĀ­comes: a case study

Matrice JacobinešŸ”øšŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø11 Apr 2025 1:46 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(bobjacobs.substack.com)

ManĀ­iĀ­fold marĀ­kets isn’t very good

Robin20 Jun 2024 11:24 UTC
12 points
32 comments5 min readEA link

I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027

Vasco GrilošŸ”ø4 Jun 2024 16:37 UTC
201 points
64 comments2 min readEA link

Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority

Scott Garrabrant22 Nov 2022 17:19 UTC
46 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

ExĀ­perts’ AI timelines are longer than you have been told?

Vasco GrilošŸ”ø9 Jan 2025 17:30 UTC
38 points
15 comments3 min readEA link
(bayes.net)

AGI Will Not Make LaĀ­bor Worthless

Vasco GrilošŸ”ø30 Nov 2025 17:13 UTC
9 points
13 comments6 min readEA link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

I bet suĀ­perforeĀ­caster David ManĀ­heim 2 k$ that the unĀ­emĀ­ployĀ­ment rate in the United States in 2027 will be lower than 8 %

Vasco GrilošŸ”ø1 Sep 2025 16:53 UTC
55 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

UnĀ­corĀ­reĀ­lated Bets: an easy to unĀ­derĀ­stand and very imĀ­porĀ­tant deĀ­ciĀ­sion theĀ­ory conĀ­sidĀ­erĀ­aĀ­tion, which helps tease out nonobĀ­viĀ­ous but proĀ­ducĀ­tive critĀ­iĀ­cism of the EA movement

Uncorrelated Returns12 Aug 2022 9:04 UTC
22 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

A webĀ­site to creĀ­ate bets with strangers

bob22 Jul 2025 10:25 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
No comments.