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Es­ti­mate elic­i­ta­tion and crowdsourcing

TagLast edit: Nov 28, 2022, 12:04 PM by brook

Estimate elicitation and crowdsourcing, or eliciting estimates from other people, can be helpful for more accurate estimation.

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fermi estimate | cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | prediction markets | value of information | manifold markets | metaculus

Pro­ject: A web plat­form for crowd­sourc­ing im­pact es­ti­mates of in­ter­ven­tions.

Max ClarkeApr 22, 2022, 6:54 AM
41 points
18 comments5 min readEA link

Straight­for­wardly elic­it­ing prob­a­bil­ities from GPT-3

NunoSempereFeb 9, 2023, 7:25 PM
41 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment elic­it­ing rel­a­tive es­ti­mates for Open Philan­thropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

NunoSempereSep 12, 2022, 11:19 AM
111 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Vague Ver­biage in Forecasting

trevor1Mar 22, 2024, 6:05 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
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