Samotsvety Forecasting

TagLast edit: Oct 5, 2022, 1:35 PM by Lizka

Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and Eli Lifland. Their track record can be found here.

Related entries

Forecasting | estimation of existential risk

Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022

NunoSempereOct 3, 2022, 6:10 PM

262 points

112 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

52 comments16 min readEA link

Forecasts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjusticeMar 20, 2023, 4:03 AM

37 points

13 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

1 comment27 min readEA link

(samotsvety.org)

Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Misha_YagudinJan 24, 2023, 4:27 AM

120 points

56 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

9 comments4 min readEA link

Creating a database for base rates

nikosDec 12, 2022, 10:05 AM

74 points

35 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

7 comments3 min readEA link

My take on What We Owe the Future

eliflandSep 1, 2022, 6:07 PM

357 points

138 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

51 comments26 min readEA link

Nuclear Expert Comment on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecast

JhrosenbergMar 26, 2022, 9:22 AM

129 points

62 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

13 comments18 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022

NunoSempereMar 10, 2022, 6:52 PM

155 points

60 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

54 comments6 min readEA link

My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.

NunoSempereJan 23, 2023, 8:08 PM

438 points

183 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

116 comments14 min readEA link

(nunosempere.com)

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

eliflandSep 9, 2022, 4:01 AM

175 points

62 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

30 comments4 min readEA link

Eli Lifland on Navigating the AI Alignment Landscape

Ozzie GooenFeb 1, 2023, 12:07 AM

48 points

19 votes

Overall karma indicates overall quality.

9 comments31 min readEA link

(quri.substack.com)

No comments.

Keyboard shortcuts

Keys shown in yellow (e.g., ]) are accesskeys, and require a browser-specific modifier key (or keys).

Keys shown in grey (e.g., ?) do not require any modifier keys.

General
? Show keyboard shortcuts
Esc Hide keyboard shortcuts

Site navigation
h Go to Home (a.k.a. “Frontpage”) view
f Go to Featured (a.k.a. “Curated”) view
a Go to All (a.k.a. “Community”) view
m Go to Meta view
v Go to Tags view
c Go to Recent Comments view
r Go to Archive view
q Go to Sequences view
t Go to About page
u Go to User or Login page
o Go to Inbox page

Page navigation
, Jump up to top of page
. Jump down to bottom of page
/ Jump to top of comments section
s Search

Page actions
n New post or comment
e Edit current post

Post/comment list views
. Focus next entry in list
, Focus previous entry in list
; Cycle between links in focused entry
Enter Go to currently focused entry
Esc Unfocus currently focused entry
] Go to next page
[ Go to previous page
\ Go to first page
e Edit currently focused post

Editor
k Bold text
i Italic text
l Insert hyperlink
q Blockquote text

Appearance
= Increase text size
- Decrease text size
0 Reset to default text size
′ Cycle through content width settings
1 Switch to default theme [A]
2 Switch to dark theme [B]
3 Switch to grey theme [C]
4 Switch to ultramodern theme [D]
5 Switch to simple theme [E]
6 Switch to brutalist theme [F]
7 Switch to ReadTheSequences theme [G]
8 Switch to classic Less Wrong theme [H]
9 Switch to modern Less Wrong theme [I]
; Open theme tweaker
Enter Save changes and close theme tweaker
Esc Close theme tweaker (without saving)

Slide shows
l Start/resume slideshow
Esc Exit slideshow
→↓ Next slide
←↑ Previous slide
Space Reset slide zoom

Miscellaneous
x Switch to next view on user page
z Switch to previous view on user page
` Toggle compact comment list view
g Toggle anti-kibitzer