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Samotsvety Forecasting

TagLast edit: Oct 5, 2022, 1:35 PM by Lizka

Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and Eli Lifland. Their track record can be found here.

Related entries

Forecasting | estimation of existential risk

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk up­date Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempereOct 3, 2022, 6:10 PM
262 points
52 comments16 min readEA link

Fore­casts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjusticeMar 20, 2023, 4:03 AM
37 points
1 comment27 min readEA link
(samotsvety.org)

Up­date to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Misha_YagudinJan 24, 2023, 4:27 AM
120 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

Nu­clear Ex­pert Com­ment on Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Forecast

JhrosenbergMar 26, 2022, 9:22 AM
129 points
13 comments18 min readEA link

My take on What We Owe the Future

eliflandSep 1, 2022, 6:07 PM
354 points
51 comments26 min readEA link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

eliflandSep 9, 2022, 4:01 AM
175 points
30 comments4 min readEA link

My highly per­sonal skep­ti­cism brain­dump on ex­is­ten­tial risk from ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence.

NunoSempereJan 23, 2023, 8:08 PM
435 points
116 comments14 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie GooenFeb 1, 2023, 12:07 AM
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikosDec 12, 2022, 10:05 AM
74 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempereMar 10, 2022, 6:52 PM
155 points
54 comments6 min readEA link
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