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Samotsvety Forecasting

TagLast edit: 5 Oct 2022 13:35 UTC by Lizka

Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and Eli Lifland. Their track record can be found here.

Related entries

Forecasting | estimation of existential risk

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk up­date Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempere3 Oct 2022 18:10 UTC
262 points
52 comments16 min readEA link

Fore­casts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjustice20 Mar 2023 4:03 UTC
37 points
1 comment27 min readEA link
(samotsvety.org)

Up­date to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Misha_Yagudin24 Jan 2023 4:27 UTC
120 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

Nu­clear Ex­pert Com­ment on Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Forecast

Jhrosenberg26 Mar 2022 9:22 UTC
129 points
13 comments18 min readEA link

My take on What We Owe the Future

elifland1 Sep 2022 18:07 UTC
353 points
51 comments26 min readEA link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
175 points
30 comments4 min readEA link

My highly per­sonal skep­ti­cism brain­dump on ex­is­ten­tial risk from ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence.

NunoSempere23 Jan 2023 20:08 UTC
435 points
116 comments14 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie Gooen1 Feb 2023 0:07 UTC
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikos12 Dec 2022 10:05 UTC
74 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
155 points
54 comments6 min readEA link
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