Agrippa

Karma: 886

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 5:32 PM
8 points
4 ∶ 4
in reply to: lukasb’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
I would like to be involved in the version of EAs where we look after eachother’s basic wellness even if it’s bad for FTX or other FTX depositors. I think people will find this version of EA more emotionally safe and inspiring.
To me there is just no normative difference between trying to suppress information and actively telling people they should go deposit on FTX when distress occurred (without communicating any risks involved), knowing that there was a good chance they’d get totally boned if they did so. Under your model this would be no net detriment, but it would also just be sociopathic.
Yes the version of EA where people suppress this information, rather than actively promote deposits, is safer. But both are quite cruel and not something I could earnestly suggest to a friend that they devote their lives to.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 9:52 AM
11 points
2 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
What I think: I think that FTX was insolvent such that even if FTT price was steady, user funds were not fully backed. That is, they literally bet the money on a speculative investment and lost it, and this caused a multibillion dollar financial hole. It is also possible that some or all of the assets—liabilities deficit was caused by a hack that happened months ago that they did not report.
As far as I can tell, you don’t think this. Well, if you really don’t think that, and it turns out you were wrong, then I’d like you to update. I think probabilities are a good way to enforce that, that is my actual good-faith belief. Of course I’m also always looking for profitable trades.
Is there any bet you’d take, that doesn’t rely on a legal system (which I agree adds a lot of confounders, not to mention delay), on the above claim? Could we bet on “By April 2023, evidence arises that FTX user funds were not even 95% backed before Binance’s FTT selloff?” Or maybe we could bet on Nuno’s belief on the backing?
BTW your chart is USDD not USDC. Idk what USDD is.
Also I’ve now spent like wayyy too much time chatting about this on here. Making a bet would involve further chatting. So FYI the most likely outcome is that I wake up tomorrow and pretend it was all just a dream. Sorry to disappoint and thanks for indulging me a bit in the end.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 9:21 AM
2 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
You’re Agrippa! The guy with very short timelines, is Berkeley adjacent and knows that cool DxE person.
No, I do care about you! I respect you quite a bit. I was wrong and I retract what I said before in at least a few comments, and I apologize for my behavior. Also, I’ll be happy to take any negative repercussions.
😳 That’s nice of you, thanks.
I’m actually not a guy though I don’t take any offense to the assumption, given my username.
Maybe Nuno would escrow for us.
I’m probably down for $500, would need to talk to my partner about going much higher anyway. If you are in the US we might not need escrow since suing eachother is an option, if we went >5k that would be worth it.
Re SBF vs FTX/Alameda paying: Yeah I meant SBF personally. I agree it’s a big difference. Jan 1st is the date but I also don’t know how fast this stuff ever goes and researching it sounds annoying.
Given that you think it’s likely FTX “gambled” user funds I am really not sure we disagree on anything interesting to begin with :-[
Maybe you think it’s only 70% likely and I think it’s a lot more than that?

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 9:08 AM
1 point
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Agrippa’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
Also, thanks for taking a position on both. We are on the same side of ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ for the “gambled deposits” question, though. I wish we could come up with something we disagree on that might also resolve sooner, I’ll think on it…
Maybe we disagree on just how big FTX’s financial hole is? Could we bet on “as of today, FTX liabilities—FTX liabilites >= 4bn”? I’d go positive on that one.
Dunno… Really can’t tell what you believe. You commented that folks are being too negative yet seem to also think that FTX “gambled” user deposits, which sounds pretty negative to me (though we can disagree about whether it was good to have done this). Oh wellz.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 8:44 AM
4 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
For ⁵⁰⁄₅₀, I’ll take negative, will not resolve affirmatively on:
- “SBF found guilty of literally anything / pays a fine of over 1M for literally any reason, by 2024”.
Cool, what size bet? And, after we figure that out, any thoughts on an escrow?

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 8:21 AM
3 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
:-(
I will have to insist on trusted escrow for any bets between us...

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 8:17 AM
5 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
We seem to have very different ideas of what “operationalization” means...

How about “By April, will evidence come out that FTX gambled deposits rather than keeping it in reserves?” ? There’s already a literal prediction market up on that one!
We could do “SBF found guilty of literally anything / pays a fine of over 1M for literally any reason, by 2024” ? If that’s not operationalization I really have to give up here.
I do have a real name by the way!!
BTW I am assuming you are willing to bet in the thousands. If not, I really don’t consider that a bad thing, but lmk please!

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 8:10 AM
8 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
As an aside it is surprising to me that I seem at all to you like the type of person Sam might have been surrounded with. I don’t think anyone remotely insider-y has ever even slightly felt that way about me.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 8:00 AM
3 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
I will take a bet like “found guilty for X/paid a fine of X”, which are actual events that happen.
OK whatevs, which side of ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ do you want? And by what date? (and for that matter what X? Fraud???)

That said I really dunno why you don’t like “FTX used user funds to make risky investments” or “FTX speculated using user funds” etc. Is there nobody we might mutually trust to neutrally trust to resolve such a thing?

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 7:43 AM
6 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
I’m sorry but I really don’t understand why you think it’s not adequate. “Fraud” is quite well-defined, and “loss of user funds” is also quite well-defined.
I would offer odds on like, criminal prosecution results, but that will take such a long time to resolve that I don’t think it makes an attractive bet. As you point out there are also jurisdictional questions.
Is “SBF lied about the safety of user funds on FTX.com″ better to you?
“FTX used user funds to make risky investments”?
“SBF mislead users about the backing of their FTX.com accounts”?

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 7:30 AM
7 points
2 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
The real world event would be “FTX committed fraud that caused >1bn loss of user funds”. But if it’s a bet somebody has to arbitrate the outcome, you know?
I just picked EA forum users as an arbitator since like, that’s the venue here. But if you have any other picks for arbitrator that would be fine. You can pick yourself but I’m not sure I’d agree to that bet. Likewise I assumed you wouldn’t go for it if I picked me. And if it’s the 2 of us well then we might tie.

> but do you have like an an account on a prediction market
Multiple

> Are you associated with the grantees on their prediction market projects?
I am not sure that I understand this question. I have myself recieved a grant to work on a prediction market project.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 7:26 AM
2 points
1 ∶ 2
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
I think that putting up probabilities is and should be expected. I think that actual financial betting shouldn’t be expected but is certainly welcome.
If I was going to dispute the first thing I would do is ask for probabilities. It seems weird to try to argue with you about whether your predictions are wrong if I don’t even know what they are. For all I know we have the same predictions and just a different view of other posters’ predictions.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 7:20 AM
6 points
3 ∶ 1
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
In one year we can make a thread that asks EA forum users to vote on whether they believe >90% odds that SBF fraudulently handled funds (that is, in a way that was directly contradictory to public representation of handling funds) in a way that costed FTX.com customers >1bn in losses.
If a majority of users (whose accounts existed since yesterday, to prevent shenanigans) vote yes, then the bet resolves YES. Otherwise NO.

Which side of ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ do you want?

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 7:11 AM
4 points
2 ∶ 3
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
If you don’t want to make a single quantifiable prediction on this topic, after making claims about other people’s predictions being “too negative”, yes I consider that both evasive and inadequate.
If you really believe people are being “too negative” in their speculation, I thought you might be willing to put your money where your mouth is in some way. If you’re not, then you’re not, but it’s got nothing to do with how well defined legality is, the moral meaning of illegality, etcetera.

Edit: I don’t actually really think that a social expectation of financial betting is a good norm (not that betting is bad, just that declining to financial bet is fine). Please interpret “putting your money where your mouth is” as referring to reputational stake from making a concrete prediction on fraud/malfeasance/etcetera.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 6:57 AM
−3 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
Can you just operationalize a few things yourself and attach numbers to them? That sounds easiest.
For example, your odds on whether SBF literally goes to prison within the next 4 years…
(Though I think there are better ways to operationalize)
If you can’t come up with a way to operationalize a prediction on this topic in any straightforwardly falsifiable way then that’s okay I guess, though kind of sad.

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 6:33 AM
27 points
3 ∶ 1
in reply to: Charles He’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
Would you be open to stating some probabilities on this topic—for example, your probability that Sam gets convicted of fraud, is conclusively found out to have committed fraud, etcetera?

I ask because I’d potentially be interested in making some financial bets with you!

Agrippa Nov 10, 2022, 6:27 AM
24 points
12 ∶ 6
in reply to: richard_ngo’s comment on: FTX will likely go bankrupt. What we know and some forecasts on what will happen next
I really take issue with #2 here. Bank run exacerbation saved my friend’s life savings. Expectations of collapse can save your life if, you know, there’s a collapse.
It really seems insanely cruel to say we shouldn’t inform people because it might be bad for FTX (namely in the event of insolvency). Where are our priorities? I’m very glad that my friends did not observe your #2 preference here.
Of course the best way to help FTX against a bank run would have been to deposit your own funds at the first sign of distress. As of writing I think it’s still not too late!

Agrippa Oct 15, 2022, 4:28 AM
3 points
2 ∶ 1
on: Anonymous advice: If you want to reduce AI risk, should you take roles that advance AI capabilities?
There seem like two obvious models:
1) intractability model, where AGI = doom and the only safe move is not to make it
2) race / differential progress model, where safety needs to be ahead of capabilities by some amount, before capabilities reaches point X

As far as I can tell, alignment is advancing a lot slower per researcher than capabilities. So even if you contribute 1 year on capabilities and 10 on alignment, your effect under differential progress was just bad, and your effect under intractability was badder.

I’m curious how much the “having aligned people in the room is good” theory can be assessed already. I personally am not a big buyer of it. For example this phenomenon doesn’t seem visible in the manhattan project or following nuclear policy.

Agrippa Sep 3, 2022, 11:00 PM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Eli_Nathan’s comment on: Open EA Global
Thanks for clarifying

Agrippa Sep 2, 2022, 8:52 PM
13 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Eli_Nathan’s comment on: Open EA Global
We simply have a specific bar for admissions and everyone above that bar gets admitted

A) Does this represent a change from previous years? Previous comms have gestured at a desire to get a certain mixture of credentials, including beginners. This is also consistent with private comms and my personal experience.

B) Its pretty surprising that Austin, a current founder of a startup that received 1M in EA related funding from FTX regrants, would be below that bar!

Maybe you are saying that there is a bar above which you will get in, but below which you may or may not get in.

I think lack of clarity and mixed signals around this stuff might contribute unnecessarily to hurt feelings.