Isn’t this trivially exploitable? If a market like this existed, then surely my first move as a corrupt billionaire would be to place rolling bets on my own innocence. Seems like I should be able to manipulate the estimate by risking only a small fraction of my charitable allocation in most realistic cases. Especially since the lower the market probability looks, the less likely anyone is to actually investigate me carefully.
Isn’t this trivially exploitable? If a market like this existed, then surely my first move as a corrupt billionaire would be to place rolling bets on my own innocence. Seems like I should be able to manipulate the estimate by risking only a small fraction of my charitable allocation in most realistic cases. Especially since the lower the market probability looks, the less likely anyone is to actually investigate me carefully.