was in charge of IT and software at Alvea
ex-boardmember of EA Germany
co-founded two small startups
ex-human rights observer with Peace Brigades International
Flo šø
Karma: 221
Wondering how much of the higher happiness and general nice things in Scandinavian countries can be attributed to really high taxes on alcohol.
It is possible to rationally prioritise between causes without engaging deeply on philosophical issues
Even what we think of as our terminal values may change once we examine them closer.
itās easy to be wrong about what futures are more valuable, but itās pretty clear that extinction closes off all future options of creating value.
Judging from your description and the images Ameliorate or DebateMap may come close. The name for this tool category I have encountered is either argument mapping or concept mapping. You should also have a look at Whysaurus, the way it handles contributions seems close to what you describe.
Iām also building an argument analysis tool, but itās probably not what youāre looking for, since it focuses more on identifying cruxes between two users: Fences. As part of that work, Iām also creating a page that compares all these tools, Iāll comment here once that is finished.
Thanks for writing up your thinking on this, and also more in general for doing the hard work of community building. š
I think Tess makes good points in their comment about the huge amounts of uncertainty contained in that impact potential factor, and I would go a step further and say:
The factor i is a red herring, and it is harmful for community building to try and predict it.
āintuitivelyā predicting this is extremely succeptible to bias and rationalizations
overconfident community builders using this to justify their decisions will come off as arrogant and elitist
it will increase impostor syndrome (āmy local group doesnāt have a high enough impact potentialā)
itās dependent on which ethical frameworks are correct
core EA orgs werenāt able to predict the hugely negative impact of SBF
Using it to decide who is āmost worthy of outreachā is in direct conflict with core strenghts of the EA community: cause-neutrality and openness to neglected approaches to making the world a better place.
What should be done instead?
Aim to build a broad, diverse community that is welcoming and non-judgemental and accurately communicates EA ideas to a large audience. Build a community that you would want to be part of. Does this mean abandoning quantitative measures? No, we can still measure if we achieve our goals:
measure participantās understanding of core EA ideas
measure diversity
measure people reached
measure giving pledges
measure money donated
The high impact potential people (those mythical creatures) will find their way once they have come in contact with an accurate representation of EA ideas. Itās not the job of community builders to identify and guide them (because they canāt), their job is to build an awesome community that communicates EA ideas with high fidelity so that many people come in contact with good first hand accounts of these ideas instead of simplified straw-man versions of EA in take-down articles about scandals in the EA community.
Yeah, I mainly posted it because itās good comedy. That doesnāt mean I think Give Directly should adopt it.
As inspiration, hereās a quote by Scottish stand-up comedian Frankie Boyle on how patronizing the teaching-to-fish idea is:
https://āāwww.youtube.com/āāwatch?v=4X5KmQxvO5U&t=1537s
Give a man a fish, and he can eat for a day. Give him a fishing rod, and he can feed himself. Alternatively, donāt poison the fishing waters, abduct his great-grandparents into slavery, then turn up 400 years later on your fucking gap year talking a lot of shite about fish.
A [ā¦] report linking deforestation in the Amazon to soy and beef production was published in Science [ā¦], Forbes and BBC then mistakenly announced that 1ā5 of the entire national exports were so contaminated.
Sadly this kind of misrepresentation of scientific papers or overgeneralization of their actual results seems to be a common pattern.
Have you tried to contact the authors at Forbes and BBC? Maybe writing letters to the editor could be a quick way to curb some of the harms of sub par science reporting? (at least in cases where the article misinterprets the underlying paper)
Do all EA orgs need to use the same tools?
No, and I hope I didnāt imply that there is a one-size-fits-all solution that everybody needs to switch to.
can those with added security needs (e.g. those active in countries with government repression) just use different tools
Yes, that is of course possible, and I would expect that to happen automatically. Just note that this means in some cases that we will exclude those people with added security needs from community spaces.
Things that would make me less worried about āusing whatever works bestā:
switching later is actually easier than I currently think
information becoming available to future adversarial actors is actually not as bad because:
either people are really good at not posting compromising stuff
or there is almost no content that will become problematic in the next years
Another possible reason against might be:
In some countries there is a growing number of people who intentionally donāt use Facebook. Even if their reasons for their decision may be flawed, it might make recruiting more difficult. While I perceive this as quite common among German academics, Germany might also just be an outlier.Moving certain services found on Facebook to other sites: [...], making it easier for people to reach out to each other (e.g. EA Hub Community directory). Then it may be easier to move whatever is left (e.g. discussions) to a new platform.
I think the EA Hub is in a good position to grow and replace some of the functions that Facebook is currently being used for in the community.
Thank you Aaron for the thoughtful reply.
I find your suggestions on better questions to get more achievable types of evidence very useful. @Manuel_Allgaier and me will ask them or similar ones on the EA Berlin Slack, a German EA Telegram channel and in the FB group you mentioned.
[...] a strong prior in favor of valuing extra marginal security more than the convenience weād lose in order to achieve that.
Yes, that is a good way to rephrase my position.
Google may be more vulnerable to breaches, but it seems much less likely than a small private server to lose data because someone makes a technical error or loses a key password.
This is probably a central crux for some. If you came to believe that the risk of data loss through admin error on a self-hosted system were lower than the breach-risk at Google, would that change your view on the convenience-security trade-off?
Thank you, youāre right I added the predictions at the last minute, and should have spent a few more minutes making sure that they are operationalized well.
I added a clarification about the kind of leaks I meant, as you noted if any individual sharing a screenshot counts, it would not be a useful prediction.
Same for government repression ā I added another question for US,UK and EU.
My feeling is that this is worth looking into more.
It seems to me that there has not been a lot of public written analysis of risks associated with poor operational security in each cause area and operational security in the EA movement itself.
One possible explanation for this would be that some people have done this analysis and decided to keep the results confidential.
Still, I would also be very interested to hear if people know of such analysis being done.
With regards to death threats being realized: From my experience in Colombia, while most death threats do not get realized, they still act as a strong deterrent, often by targetting family members instead of the main target.
Hiring a security detail is not the only possible counter-measure though: The main focus of the NGO I was working with was to increase the political costs associated with this kind of violence, thereby decreasing itās cost-effectiveness.
Thanks, Iāll try and embed them here:
Will internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040? Will internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040? (Here i mean data leaks that happen on a company level, meaning the service provider leaks full message histories. This excludes leaks through missteps by individuals such as accidentally setting wrong channel permissions, or leaked screenshots)
Conditional on all EA community building Slack Workspaces being replaced with Mattermost instances, would user participation in those spaces drop by more than 5%? Conditional on all EA community building Slack Workspaces being replaced with Mattermost instances, would user participation in those spaces drop by more than 5%? Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression by 2040? (for example withdrawal of operating license, denial of work visas, etc. in any country)
Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression in the US, UK or a EU country by 2040? Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression in the US, UK or a EU country by 2040?
Ok, this seems to be a good workaround: For posts with footnotes, use the markdown editor. Then after posting, switch to the regular editor in your profile settings, and post your elicit prediction links in a comment.
edit: updated with clarifications and a fourth question as meerpirat suggested
Thank you for your detailed post on how to compare these kinds of organisations. I have the feeling that EA doesnāt spend as much time as I would have expected (for a longtermist movement) on figuring out how to actually build a memeplex thatās sticky for possibly millennia.
There is a book by John Dickie called The Craft: How the Freemasons Made the Modern World. Having only read the Economistās review (pay-walled)Ā¹ it looks like a good starting point if somebody wants to go more in depth on how the Freemasons came to exist for so long and recruit quite a few influential people. Apparently they have around 6 million members worldwide and no central governing body.
Maybe there is also an argument to be made that their influence as a movement, and their success in spreading their values might actually be quite limited, although some of their members have a lot of influence (in some cases through the Italian mafia).
So basically: only creating a good label, thatās perpetuated through rituals and associated with a lot of famous people might work well to attract conspiracy fantasies, but doesnāt necessarily help improve the long term future.
1: also readable here: https://āāoutline.com/āā82hYaU
Thank you for that addition. I think my post is due for an update soon. I still hold mostly the same concerns as described in the post, but by now the trade-offs between convenience and risk have shifted for many people due to
the more obvious rise of fascism
anyone having the capability with LLMs now to extremely cheaply evaluate each person whoās data they have access to