I could have been clearer about what is being counted as what, but such FTX-related assets are all counted as illiquid in this categorisation / hypothetical. I agree that assets appearing to exceed liabilities in itself doesn’t necessarily mean much, was covered in OP in the first section.
All I’m counting as liquid here is:
Roughly $1bn of the final SBF balance sheet
Mostly looking at $200m ‘USD in ledger prime’, $500m ‘locked USDT’, and $500m of HOOD shares.
The $5bn returned to customers during the bank run
Since this was successfully returned, it’s almost liquid-by-definition.
I would assume this was overwhelmingly USD / stablecoins / BTC / ETH, since those collectively made up almost all of the final liabilities (SBF balance sheet over on top left)
The $???bn returned to the lenders in June 2022
I speculated $10bn in prior comment, but again this is very much just a guess.
Anyway, it’s hard to put much weight on any of this because so much is uncertain, including the accuracy of that balance sheet.
(Not a lawyer, not legal advice, but if anyone reads OP and does consult a lawyer, I think they should get advice on the below.)
You focus on answer #5 from Claude for why this may not apply. Do you have anything to say about #7, quoted below? That’s the reason I was expecting charities to have to give everything back.
Donations are usually made in return for ‘no value or consideration’; this is part of what makes them donations:
It’s true that in general, avoidance actions or ‘clawbacks’ are designed to create equity among creditors who withdrew and those who didn’t, and this usually means those who withdrew retain some of the money. For example here’s a recent Matt Levine description, bold added:
The issue I see is that if a nonprofit received a donation from insolvent FTX/Alameda, ‘what they would get in the bankruptcy’ is likely nothing. Insolvent companies are meant to be paying back creditors, not making donations.
However, if a nonprofit was holding other funds on FTX—perhaps it took in crypto donations via transfers to its FTX account, sold the crypto for USD, and withdrew the USD in the run up to bankruptcy—then yes absolutely check what you’re entitled to and speak to a lawyer before you settle anything.