Thanks for sharing this Linch, I found it a useful complement to the marginal grant thresholds post, which I recommend for those who enjoyed this post.
Thanks Joel for your thoughtful comment, which Iād like to build on.
I was thinking about how we can get funders to make calculated bets on those that have been discarded elsewhere, and get rewarded when they proved others right. Isnāt AI Safety Impact Markets trying to solve some of the issues with adverse selection through that kind of mechanism? Sorry for the lack of depth, but I think others can weigh in better.
Henri Thunberg šø
What are your thoughts, for you personally, around...
I) Time spent
II) Joy of use
III) Value of information gained
of Manifold vs Metaculus?
Great listen, I enjoyed this a lot!
Kudos to Luisa who does a really good job of acting as a āWatsonā, asking the followup questions that listeners might have. Several times in this podcast I was happy with her summaries or clarifying questions, even if I suspect she already knew the answers many of those times.
I would be surprised if the effect from the lack of a pledge drive would run on into February and March 2023 though. Comparison YoY here is 12 months before, Jan 2023 to 2022 etc.
Emm sorry, what? Out of 8,000 GWWC pledgers, who have at least pledged to give 10%, very few earn $1M?
This is a great post!
I assume that you are, but better safe than sorry: Are you discussing this with Chris Lloyd at Good Impressions whoās currently ā investigating whether paid ads can be an effective fundraising toolā for EA organizations?
Thank you Eda for posting this. This must be a horrible situation to be in and I am so sorry for the losses and suffering.
Could you please give more pointers on why these organizations were chosen? While you canāt vouch for their effectiveness, I guess you are very comfortable with them doing relevant work and having a solid track record of similar activity? (To be extra clear, this is not criticism, just understanding the extent of efforts.)
At Ge Effektivt (Swedish effective donations platform) we wrote a blog post about it partly because we get questions from donors about how to approach the current crisis, but also for SEO purposes and to have more people discover EA/āeffective charities. We did mention some organizations that we were comfortable with naming, but as Iāve also seen Ahbap recommended elsewhere Iād be happy to extend/āreplace the charities weāre currently naming.
Best of luck in the fundraising efforts!
Listened to it while doing other stuff so might not be 100 % accurate.
To my understanding Tegmark appears for 10 minutes, doing a normal AI-risk spiel. I think the angle relevant to the podcast is the risk of concentration of power in the hands of a few. So some accusations of big tech capturing AI conferences etc.
Thereās a small segue talking about covid where Tegmark states he felt it was such an infected discussion that he couldnāt talk about it openly in some work environments for fear of repercussions.
As a Swede who is somewhat familiar with the publication Expo, I would maybe put the risk of forgery of that document at <5%. They are specifically known for their digging journalism, and I would be very surprised if they screwed up something basic like that.
Also, wouldnāt it be extremely strange behavior from FLI if that document actually was a forgery? Would be the go-to defense rather than what they are doing now.
I agree with this, thereās both a communication and a memory-hogging issue for each new Slack workspace you bring in.
So many conversations youāre in include a āYeah, I think Iām in that Slack space, not sureā since a few of them look alike.
That aside, I applaud the creation and hope to contribute.
Thank you for being transparent and insightful about the lessons learned. I found this post useful!
Would you be comfortable sharing some more statistics? Iām thinking things like...Rate of enrollment at companies
Average donation amount when you were up and running, I suspect it was lower than described in āIt currently has Ā£15,000 amount going through each month from 150 users.ā
Dropoff rates from usersā payroll giving
...
Youāve nudged me one step closer to writing a similar thing about learnings from a Swedish charity startup I worked with in 2017-2020.
This is something that has been on my mind, and my organization Ge Effektivt has sometimes received questions about it, so I am very happy that you are doing this. Looking forward to your work, and hope it can improve the work of the effective giving landscape in more than one way!
Cool! Looking forward to the post. Would you mind sharing briefly what youāre (paying for) lobbying for?
Answering quickly and informally for Ge Effektivt (sorry, I hadnāt seen this earlier).
When I used something like 1h to try to estimate the counterfactuality of our donations I ended up around 50%. This is removing users who say they found us through Effective Altruism Sweden, Giving What We Can pledgers (although some signed up because of us), people who found us through webpages of charities we donate to, people I know are in the EA Sweden network (some of who I think give more than they otherwise would), and then adding some on top of that. Iām open to suggestions on how to get even closer to the right answer, without spending too much time.
Weāre raising a total of ~$700k on a ~$105k budget this year, so in the end, I think our counterfactual multiplier might be around 2-3x.
With that said, I expect the next 12 months to include a more in-depth analysis of counterfactual funds raised for us and similar sites. I am looking forward to sharing the results with you!
Quick comment: Since there has been a project called EA Funds, up until recently when they merged with Giving What We Can, you might want to consider the phrasing in the headline to avoid confusion. :) āā¦ EA Money...ā?
Is there any experience with the fundraising think-tank Rogare? Seemingly some interesting publications regarding fundraising as a profession, the ethics around it, and more.
(When searching for Rogare on the forum I am only met with first-person narrators, dragons, and cosmoses performing various kinds of āroaringā.)
Some feeedback: This is a fun and interesting way to learn about things going on in the EA community so I appreciate you posting it to the forum.
To me the description lengths work well for this kind of post, as I trust I can find more information about most of the projects if/āwhen I go look for it, and about specific decisions if you keep doing AMAs.
ā Great initiative
ā Thank you for a nice structure to your post, answering lots of questions I expect people would have.
ā I think youāre making sense launching and seeing what comes of the project.
Posted in EA Sweden programmer Slack and suggested it directly to a few programmers. Hope you will all find it fruitful, best of luck!
Sorry, I was in a bit of a rush and should have looked at your link before giving too quick an answer ā in that case I would have understood what you had already seen and considered. My bad!
Love this! Seems like a great push (importantly, in a constructive and thoughtful way) for many that might otherwise feel frustrated with their current situation. Will definitely share this from time to time :))