I use both Manifold and Metaculus every day and it’s not really clear to me which I spend time on more. The answer is “a lot” to both.
For joy of use, I think Manifold has worked hard to make the forecasting process very seamless and I like that. I also like the gamification of the mana profit system. That being said, I think the questions on Metaculus tend to be more interesting. I personally like having rigorous resolution criteria and I personally prefer being able to give my true probabilities rather than bet up or down. So Metaculus might suit my personality better.
Surprisingly I don’t really have a clear read which platform is more accurate. So I think the value of information is optimized by using both platforms. I’m keen to see this researched more.
By answering this question I should disclose that Metaculus pays me money for being a forecaster. I suppose Manifold also indirectly pays me money because RP is part of their Manifold for Charity program. So my feelings towards them are not exactly unbiased.
What are your thoughts, for you personally, around...
I) Time spent
II) Joy of use
III) Value of information gained
of Manifold vs Metaculus?
I use both Manifold and Metaculus every day and it’s not really clear to me which I spend time on more. The answer is “a lot” to both.
For joy of use, I think Manifold has worked hard to make the forecasting process very seamless and I like that. I also like the gamification of the mana profit system. That being said, I think the questions on Metaculus tend to be more interesting. I personally like having rigorous resolution criteria and I personally prefer being able to give my true probabilities rather than bet up or down. So Metaculus might suit my personality better.
Surprisingly I don’t really have a clear read which platform is more accurate. So I think the value of information is optimized by using both platforms. I’m keen to see this researched more.
By answering this question I should disclose that Metaculus pays me money for being a forecaster. I suppose Manifold also indirectly pays me money because RP is part of their Manifold for Charity program. So my feelings towards them are not exactly unbiased.