This question is important to me, it affects my major/career decision. Some of you downvoted this post, I’d like to know the mistakes of my thoughts, please share your opinions.
jackchang110
Karma: 195
Thinking more on a doctor’s value
Will AGI development be restricted by physics and semiconductor wafer? I don’t know how AI was developing so fast in the history, but some said it’s because the Moore’s Law of seniconductor wafer. If the development of semiconductor wafer comes to an end because of physical limitations l, can AI still grow exponentially?
Sorry, it looks like some people downvoted this question, I’d like to know if I asked a dumb question or I didn’t clarify my question. But, I think this is an important question, because if you keep in trouble getting funds with academics（It’s common in Taiwan that you don’t have enough funding）, you can’t finish your research
[Question] Is it harder to get animal welfare research funds in academics?
Hello Ben: Thanks for your answering a lot. I really need for advices about this. If you’d like to, maybe you can share more opinion about my other considerations on the article. I still don’t have strong enough arguments to make a decision now.
1.Thanks for your sharing about changing fields in bioinformatics to web app developing.
I don’t know about CS, but I think there are a lot of subfields in CS: Such as software, hardware, informatics, firmware.. Even software engineers has specailities at different programming languages. Any kinds of careers need speciality. So I really don’t know how it differs as working on a CS field in different companies. Abut how many years does it take for learning/ building new experience in bioinformatics changing to big tech companies? What about changing to machine learning research? Is it feasible to change career at an older age, like 50?(if I have enough money)
2.Are there any more examples that show the impactful cause areas change quickly by time?
Finally, I think it’s hard to say you’re interested in something until you learn some harder courses in college(especially for me, because I’m intersted in a lot of fields). So I still need to make college decisions first.
Hello Ben(what if you could give 20% of your income? Would it be double more impactful)
1.Thanks for answering, there are fewer people in EA working at biology field.
2.ETG is really somethink we can conisder about, according to Toby Ord’s podcasts on 80000 hours, he said talent gaps are much needed instead of funding gaps, most EA comapnies would rather get a great worker rather than getting $100000 donation,(but things like animal welfare may be different, its funding gaps are bigger). You should also consider careers like biology professor, if you’re a good one, you’re actually winning research funds for important topics like malaria research for EAs, too.
3.Yeah, of course medicine gives you social skills and medicine knowledge can be used more medical research I don’t know medicine, but I doubt:(i)If you’re working in non medical field(such as animal welfare, lab-grown meat), do you need those detailed clinical medicine knowledge?(ii)Won’t working as a resaercher(bioinformatics engineer) better for building your career capital rather than being a doctor? The two areas require different experiences.
4.As my article, is medicine a more narrow subject? CS is more useful than biology, because every company needs CS employees, but maybe not biology. An medicine is only human-biology. You don’t need medicine to work at AI risks or climate change.
Sorry if my comment showed disrepect for someone who is expert as medicine.
Do you understand what I wrote on my whiteboard?
[Question] Asking for important college major advices- should I study medicine?
Thanks, I’m too small(16) to speak to 80000 hours, they refused me. Also, neurofeedback is like genetic engineering, the hardest part is bio ethics, I think. But it doesn’t conflict with my goal because working at neuroscience require CS and bio skills, too.
Actually,I was considering if I should study medicine in the college. We decide our major in freshman year. In Taiwan, med is the most popular major, CS the third popular. I can get both majors, too, but it’s hard. I need to make the decision as fast as I can.(also persuade my parents) Pros on studying med： 1.If you fail to get a job/ be a professor aborad or get fired in the future（chance：unknown, but may be high）,you can go back Taiwan for doctor, which is more stable（won’t get fired）, altruistic(if you’re a better doctor than average) and easier to ETG than engineers. Good backup plan 2.I can consider pass through USMLE to be a doctor in America and get my green card. Which may be easier to settle down than working as engineer in USA. Then I can start to do EA-aligned careers. Cons 1.May waste 6 years to learn med if you didn’t work as doctor or medicine-related bioresearch. 2.Its hard to learn medicine and CS at the same time if I’m not smart enough. I won’t be that skillful in CS.
Hello Lixiang: Thanks ver much for your comment. Of course I’ll study as much math as I can(I mentioned that I’ll have CS for my college major). But, if the immigration policy didn’t change from now, it’s hard to get a job even with deep CS skills, (unless I become a CS professor). I don’t want to go back Taiwan, because in Taiwan, you can only do engineers in big companies which aren’t EA-aligned.
Sorry for my inaccurate words. It’s impossible to 100% understand each subjects(such as math, physics...) But how much time does it take for “enough understanding” in every cause area?
[Question] Is it hard for Chinese/Taiwanese to find EA-aligned careers in America?
[Question] Do you think having a doctor experience can build career capital for biology research?
[Question] How many hours did it take you to undertsand all of the concepts on each cause areas?
Thanks for answering, I respect your value about x-risks (I’d consider if I was wrong)
What’s the expected value of working in AI safety?
I’m not certain about longtermism and the value of reducing x-risks, I’m not optimistic that we can really affect the long future, and I guess the future of humanity may be bad. Many EA people are like me, that’s why only 15% people think AI safety is top cause area(survey by Rethink Priority).
However, In a “near-termist” view, AI safety research is still valuable because researching it can may avoid catastrophe(not only extinction), which causes the suffering of 8 billion people and maybe animals. But, things like researching on global health, preventing pandemic seems to have a more certain “expected value”(Maybe 100 QALY/extra person or so). Because we have our history experiences and a feedback loop. AI safety is the most difficult problem on earth, I feel like the expected value is like”???” It may be very high, may be 0. We don’t know how serious suffering it would make(it may cause extinction in a minute when we’re sleeping, or torture us for years?) We don’t know if we are on the way finding the soultion, or we are all doing the wrong predictions of AGI’s thoughts? Will the government control the power of AGI? All of the work on AI safety is kind of “guessing”, so I’m confused why 80000 hours estimates the tracability to be 1%. I know AI safety is highly neglected, and it may cause unpredictable huge suffering for human and animals. But if I work in AI safety, I’d feel a little lost becuase I don’t know if I really did something meaningful, if I don’t work in AI safety, I’d feel guilty. Could some give me(and the people who hestitates to work in AI safety) some recommendations?
I’ve read an interview with Gregory Lewis on 80000 hours. He argued that due to counterfactual, doctors don’t make a big difference because doctors are already highly competitive, so you don’t make big impact especially if you work in rich countries. There’s a problem: You can still make a difference by being a better and more patient doctor. I don’t know the doctors in America, but in East Asia, not every doctors are good. Some just want to make money and they treat the patient poorly, making them suffer more.(such as misdiagnosis) So, if you can be a good doctor, the counterfactual case would be” You replace a worse doctor than you”. I don’t know how valuable would it be, but this shows doctors in rich countries may be more altruistic than normal careers. Being a biology researcher may be more valuable than just being a clinical doctor in the long run, but, I think we may underestimate a doctor’s impact. How do you think? (This was a front page post, but someone suggested me that posting it here would be better)