I agree that the ITN framework doesn’t always fit well in political contexts, especially with tipping points and wider impacts in play.
This means we probably need to look at other ways of analyzing these situations. But regarding the notion that this perspective makes advocating for a ceasefire a better option on EA grounds, I’m not so sure. While you’ve pointed out some positive effects of a ceasefire, we shouldn’t overlook the negatives. For example, a ceasefire would mean that Hamas continues to hold power in Gaza, which is an important factor to take into account.
I agree that the ITN framework doesn’t always fit well in political contexts, especially with tipping points and wider impacts in play.
This means we probably need to look at other ways of analyzing these situations. But regarding the notion that this perspective makes advocating for a ceasefire a better option on EA grounds, I’m not so sure. While you’ve pointed out some positive effects of a ceasefire, we shouldn’t overlook the negatives. For example, a ceasefire would mean that Hamas continues to hold power in Gaza, which is an important factor to take into account.