I agree that the ITN framework doesn’t always fit well in political contexts, especially with tipping points and wider impacts in play.
This means we probably need to look at other ways of analyzing these situations. But regarding the notion that this perspective makes advocating for a ceasefire a better option on EA grounds, I’m not so sure. While you’ve pointed out some positive effects of a ceasefire, we shouldn’t overlook the negatives. For example, a ceasefire would mean that Hamas continues to hold power in Gaza, which is an important factor to take into account.
I think there are two different things to figure out: 1) should we engage with the situation at all? and 2) if we engage, what should we do/advocate for? I might be wrong about this, but my perception so far is that many EAs based on some ITN reasoning answer the first question with a no, and then the second question becomes irrelevant. My main point here is that I think it is likely that the answer to the first question could be yes? For this specific case I personally believe that a ceasefire would be more constructive than the alternative, but even if you disagree with that this would not automatically mean that the best thing is not to engage at all. Or do you think it does?
I agree that the ITN framework doesn’t always fit well in political contexts, especially with tipping points and wider impacts in play.
This means we probably need to look at other ways of analyzing these situations. But regarding the notion that this perspective makes advocating for a ceasefire a better option on EA grounds, I’m not so sure. While you’ve pointed out some positive effects of a ceasefire, we shouldn’t overlook the negatives. For example, a ceasefire would mean that Hamas continues to hold power in Gaza, which is an important factor to take into account.
Thanks for commenting!
I think there are two different things to figure out: 1) should we engage with the situation at all? and 2) if we engage, what should we do/advocate for?
I might be wrong about this, but my perception so far is that many EAs based on some ITN reasoning answer the first question with a no, and then the second question becomes irrelevant. My main point here is that I think it is likely that the answer to the first question could be yes?
For this specific case I personally believe that a ceasefire would be more constructive than the alternative, but even if you disagree with that this would not automatically mean that the best thing is not to engage at all. Or do you think it does?