your face
To clarify- is it face or mucous membranes? I’ve seen ‘face’ everywhere, and I can’t really understand how touching my forehead would infect. Thanks!
Jess Kinchen Smith
Karma: 32
3. This means the virus is going to spread. Both models and reference class forecasting against diseases with similar R0 suggest that a large fraction of the population will be infected before treatments arrive, e.g. Harvard School of Public Health’s Marc Lipsitch citing 40-70% of population infected.
Do you have any thoughts on the Metaculus estimate?
Thanks. I’ve updated towards your estimate but 1⁄3 still seems high by my (all too human) intuitions.
P(it goes world scale pandemic) = 1⁄3, if I believe the exponential spreading math (hard to get my human intuition behind) and the long, symptom less, contagious incubation period
How do you arrive at 1⁄3 here?
… current marginal cost of saving a human life is around $5k to $10k, and that under mildly optimistic assumptions about the growth of EA style charity, it will rise to $100k in a decade or so.
How did you arrive at the 100k figure?
“Possible Edge Cases in Dietary Effects on Animal Welfare”
When I do consume meat, it’s ‘humanely raised’ (grass-fed etc. etc.) or wild-caught. I think the state of the art on the ethics and evidence around these food sources (vs. plausible substitutes) is muddy, and I want to publish my thoughts so someone can help me see things more clearly.
Thanks for making this!
A nitpick: the top-left Harvard logo should IMO be a few pixels toward center.