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Jordan_Schneider
Karma: 138
Thanks for this Stephen. We wrote the TLDR at the last minute and switched out the 2070 for this one. Will adjust the draft accordingly to reflect this. However I gotta say the fact that most of the China war metaculus markets barely moved in the leadup to the Pelosi visit did make me downweight my confidence that the predictions in these markets mean much.
thanks for reading!
War Between the US and China: A case study for epistemic challenges around China-related catastrophic risk
so happy you’re getting on this train! I’d encourage you to check out https://successfulsocieties.princeton.edu/, an organization that has written hundreds of case studies on bureaucratic transformation and improving state capacity over the past twenty years
i’m loving this genre of people who didn’t get Future Fund $ writing big critiques! Looking forward to contribute my own soon
You’re welcome!
Good question. In general, I’d say that of course coming to the field with heritage language skills helps, but as long as you’re willing to put in the time (which is considerable!) into learning Chinese, once you get to professional fluency you’ll end up on the same footing.
You’re welcome!
Good question. In general, I’d say that of course coming to the field with heritage language skills helps, but as long as you’re willing to put in the time (which is considerable!) into learning Chinese, once you get to professional fluency you’ll end up on roughly the same footing.
or funders could, you know, always hire more fund managers who have policy experience!