I’m honestly more than a bit surprised to see there being doubts on the propriety of publishing this. Like on the facts that Kelsey gives, it seems obvious that their relationship is journalist-subject (particularly given how experienced SBF is with the press). But even if you were to assume that they had a more casual social relationship than is being disclosed (which I do not), if you just blew up your company in a (likely) criminal episode that is the most damaging and public event in the history of the social movement you’re a part of, and your casual friend the journalist just wants to ask you a series of questions over DM, the idea that you have an expectation of privacy (without your ever trying to clarify that the conversation is private) does not seem very compelling to me.
Like, your therapist/executive coach just gave an interview on the record to the New York Times. You are front page news around the world. You know your statements are newsworthy. Why is the baseline here “oh this is just a conversation between friends?” (Particularly where one of the parties is like “no we are totally not friends”)
I don’t mean for my tone to be too harsh here, but I think this article is clearly in the public interest and I really just don’t see the logic for not publishing it.
I run an advocacy nonprofit, 1Day Sooner. When good things happen that we have advocated for, it raises the obvious question, “were we the but-for cause?”
A recent experience in our malaria advocacy work (W.H.O. prequalification of the R21 vaccine, a key advocacy target of ours) is exemplary. Prequalification was on the critical path for malaria vaccine deployment. Based on analysis of public sources and conversations with insiders, we came to the view that there was friction and possibly political pressure delaying prequalification from occurring as quickly as would be ideal. We decided to focus public pressure on a faster process (by calling for a prequalification timeline, asking Peter Singer to include the request in his op-ed on the subject, discussing the issue with relevant stakeholders, and asking journalists to inquire about it). We thought it would take at least till January and probably longer. Then a few days before Christmas, a journalist we were talking to sent us a W.H.O. press release—that morning prequalification had been announced. Did it happen sooner because of us?
The short answer is we don’t know. The reason I’m writing about it is that it highlights a type of causal uncertainty that I think is common (though not universal) in advocacy campaigns and should be relevant to EA thinking.
In some campaigns, you find yourself on the inside of a decision-maker’s process in a way that can give you some amount of certainty as to your role.[1] For my kidney donor reimbursement campaign at Waitlist Zero (pre-1Day Sooner), I saw some text related to some Trump administration actions before they happened, had good transparency into the decision-making behind the Advancing American Kidney Health Initiative that my policy was a part of, and had decent confidence that my work was a but-for cause.
But for others, like the W.H.O. prequalification above or the Biden Admnistration’s announcement of Project NextGen, things are much fuzzier. Something you advocated for happens without your getting advance notice. You’ve made the case for it publicly and perhaps exercised some levers to pressure decision-makers. Did you influence the outcome? How can you know?
I’m highlighting this experience because when it happened with NextGen I didn’t really understand how to think about it, and now with prequalification I’m at least noticing the common pattern. (To be clear, I think the case for our causal influence on prequalification is stronger than for NextGen).
I think it’s of note for EA advocates because it raises the challenge of evaluating advocacy through a consequentialist framework. To me the strongest theoretical challenge to consequentialism is uncertainty and the unknowability of the future. The uncertainty of advocacy impact is a very practical example of this broader challenge.
One thought about this I’d sent to a funder who asked about the NextGen campaign is the below:
To be clear, the prequalification advocacy story was different than this performative scaffolding concept—the most obvious way we may have been causally relevant is that the comms department of the relevant entities were likely getting journalistic inquiries about the issue from some major outlets, which very possibly scared the bejesus out of them and increased the desirability of hurrying up.
I raise these case studies because I hope they can provoke further thought, discussion, and insights from EAs involved in advocacy work.
Even this is complicated because decision-makers often have an incentive to flatter you and for many issues, even if you’re on the inside of the process you don’t know if the process would have happened without you