Unfortunately, a lot of the organizations listed are very cheap. For example, I donāt want to be too confident but I think that Arthropoda is going to have <$200k nearly certainly.
Marcus Abramovitch šø
Karma: 2,763
Actually, Iām uncertain if pausing AI is a good idea and I wish the Pause AI people had a bit more uncertainty (on both their āp(doom)ā and on whether pausing AI is a good policy) as well. I look at people who have 90%+ p(doom) as, at the very least, uncalibrated, the same way I look at the people who are dead certain that AI is going to go positively brilliant and that we should be racing ahead as fast as possible. Itās as if both of them arenāt doing any/āenough reading of history. In the case of my tribe
I would submit that this kind of protesting, including/āespecially the example you posted makes your cause seem dumb/āunnuanced/āridiculous to the onlookers who are indifferent/āknow little.
Last, I was just responding to the prompt āWhat are some criticisms of PauseAI?ā. Itās not exactly the place for a āfair and balanced viewā but also, I think it is far more important to critique your own side than the opposite side since you speak the same language as your own team so they will actually listen to you.
Correct, I potentially misremembered. the actual things they definitely say, at least in this video are āopen ai sucks! Anthropic sucks! Mistral sucks!ā And āDemis Hassabis, reckless! DarĆo amodei recklessā
I would submit that I am at the very least directionally correct.
I donāt think there is a need for me to show the relationship here.
2ā3. https://āāyoutu.be/āāT-2IM9P6tOs?si=uDiJXEqq8UJ63Hy2 this video came up as the first search result when i searched āpause ai protestā on youtube. In it, the chant things like āopen ai sucks! Anthropic sucks! Mistral sucks!ā And āDemis Hassabis, reckless! DarĆo amodei recklessā
I agree that working on safety is a key moral priority. But working on safety looks a lot more like the things I linked to in #3. Thatās what doing work looks like.
This seems to be what a typical protest looks like. Iāve seen videos of others. I consider these to be juvenile and unserious and unlikely to build necessary bridged to accomplish outcomes. Iāll let others form their opinions.
Pausing AI development is not a good policy to strive for. Nearly all regulations will slow down AI progress. Thatās what regulation does by default. It makes you slow down by having to do other stuff instead of just going forward. But a pause gets no additional benefit whereas most other regulation gets additional benefit (like model registry, chip registry, mandatory red teaming, dangerous model capability evals, model weights security standards, etc.) I donāt know what the ideal policies are but it doesnāt seem like a āpauseā with no other asks is the best one.
Pausing AI development for any meaningful amount of time is incredibly unlikely to occur. They will claim they are shifting the overton window but frankly, they mainly seem to do a bunch of protesting where they do stuff like call Sam Altman and Dario Amodei evil.
Pause AI, the organization, does, frankly, juvenile stunts that make EA/āAI safety advocates look less serious. Screaming that people are evil is extremely unnuanced, juvenile, and very unlikely to build the necessary bridges to really accomplish things. It makes us look like idiots. I think EAs too often prefer to do research from their laptops as opposed to getting out into the real world and doing things; but doing things doesnāt just mean protesting. It means crafting legislation like SB 1047. It means increasing the supply of mech interp researchers by training them. It means lobbying for safety standards on AI models.
Pause AIās premise is very ādoomyā and only makes sense if you have extremely high AI extinction probabilities and the only way to prevent extinction is an indefinite pause to AI progress. Most people (including those inside of EA) have far less confidence in how any particular AI path will play out and are far less confident in what will/āwonāt work and what good policies are. The Pause AI movement is very āsoldierā mindset and not āscoutā mindset.
Iād like to see far more of EAās budget be going towards animal welfare, in particular to the most numerous and neglected beings, invertebrates. This puts Arthropoda above SWP at the top since the former is more neglected and urgent. After that, the EA AWF has good insight to the EAA movementās needs and Rethink Priorities functions as a public good for the EA community and I think have shown themselves to be worthy of having more discretion in their budget given their incredibly impressive track record.
Apart from that, I find the case for FWI and WAI and LIC to be convincing. Iām a bit unsure of LICās impact and thus it ranks behind FWI and WAI.
I find the Gaetz and Hegeseth picks to be a bit worrying. I struggle to find a reason that the Gabbard is bad at all. In fact, I think she is probably good? Sheās a former congresswoman, city councillor, hawaii house rep and member of the national guard, etc. She seems like a good pick who is concerned about the US tendency to intervene in foreign countries.
Now, to be clear, I find the Gaetz and Hegeseth picks to be bad but I thought Trump would do these types of things and I think there is a whole universe of things that Trump could have done and so he did some mildly-moderately bad ones.
So, he did some bad things but it was around expectation and nothing yet in the tails and thus I shouldnāt update in the direction of totalitarianism.
Iām still not finding anything to really be alarmed about other than people I know being alarmed.
This seems to overstate how important the ea forum is
My problem with this is that itās not falsifiable.
If Iām willing to bet, I need to take āedgeā. I am not going to bet at my actual odds since that gives no profit for me.
1ā2. I think nearly every president committed crimes, for example, war crimes. This mainly depends on what he is prosecuted for as opposed to what is committed.
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If the constitution is amended that seems fine. Iām fine to bet on something like this though.
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Iām not sure why that matters. People can elect people you and I disagree with ideologically.
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I donāt think I understand this one. Can you clarify?
I feel like people are converting their dislike of Trump into unwarranted fears. I donāt like Trump but itās not helpful to fear monger.
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Sure, we donāt have to bet at 50ā50 odds. Iām willing to bet at say 90ā10 odds in your favor that the next election is decided by electoral college or popular vote with a (relatively) free and fair election comparable to 2016, 2020 and 2024.
I agree that Trump isā¦ bad for lack of a better word and that he seeks loyalty and such. But the US democracy is rather robust and somehow people took the fact that it held up strongly as evidence thatā¦ democracy was more fragile than we thought.
Iām willing to bet (and i already have one bet) against US democracy falling.
I have generally found the fears of democracy failing in the US to be hyperbolic and without much good evidence. The claims are also very āvibes-basedā and/āor partisan rather than at the object level.
Perhaps, to quell your concerns, you should make concrete what you are concerned about and I will try to respond to that
For starters, we have already had a Trump presidency and while the transition was not ideal, it happened and thus should make you less concerned about a Trump dictatorship/āautocracy. US institutions help up strong against a real overturning of the election.
Again, happy to formalize a bet on this.
Very good read. Thanks for writing this. This should be a more read post.
First, I loved this comment. I think we might have more philosophical animal support in the highest places in this administration than ever before.
Second, Iām not going to pretend that animal welfare is predominantly left wing but Iāve been surprised at the recent reception among right wingers.
nope, the fact that @Karthik Tadepalli verified you shows I am wrong. I am sorry for accusing you. The google scholar link not working seemed like a scam because it would look legit until you clicked it. If you want one more suspicious thing is that you posted it twice. Nonetheless, I apologize wholeheartedly.
Your google scholar link here works but not on your profile. That was one of the things that led me to believe it was a scam
Tagging that this looks like a scam/āfakeI was wrong and apologize. I donāt endorse anymore.
I think itās worth pointing out that while the US might be the most influential country on the world stage, the vast majority of animals do not reside in the US. A plurality of EAs may be in the US but itās important to remember that the US isnāt the whole world and while this may be a small set back, Iām quite hopeful for the animal movement as a whole.
Interesting Iām quite bullish on Vivek for animal issues since I think he ver much has the ear of Trump insofar as that matters and on a random Thursday, he could just get a bunch of executive orders through. Trump is far less ideological than most.
@Greg_Colbourn while I disagree on Pause AI and the beliefs that lead up to it, I want to commend you for this for:
1) Taking your beliefs seriously.
2) Actually donating significant amounts. I donāt know how this sort of fell off as a thing EAs do.