Maybe they’re training “GPT-4.5”, maybe they’ve come up with a new name and they’re training “Assistant-1″
But he’s said elsewhere publicly that they’re not training GPT-5
Maybe they’re going to focus on plugins, fine-tuning, visual processing, etc.
When thinking about the tail of dictators don’t you also have to think of the tail of good people with truly great minds you would be saving from death? (People like John von Neumann, Benjamin Franklin, etc.)
Overall, dictators are in a very tough environment with power struggles and backstabbing, lots of defecting, etc. while great minds tend to cooperate, share resources, and build upon each other.
Obviously, there are a lot more great minds doing good than ‘great minds’ wishing to be world dictators. And it seems to trend in the right direction. Compare how many great smart democratic leaders there are now vs 100 years ago. Extend that line another 100 years and it seems like we’ll be improving.
In a world in which a long tail dictator could theoretically work out an ironclad grasp of their country for evil, wouldn’t there be thousands of truly brilliant minds with lots of global coordinated resources around the world pushing against this? (see Russia vs Ukraine for a very very simple real-world example of “1 evil guy vs the world”)
So this long tail dictator has to worry about intense internal struggle/pressure but also most of the world externally pressuring them as well? I don’t see how the moral brilliant minds don’t just outmaneuver this dictator because they have 100x+ more people, resources, and coordination (in this theoretical future).