Happiness is a cookie that your brain bakes for itself.
- Joscha Bach
Professional profile: https://cv.martinmilbradt.de/
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Milli | Martin
Karma: 189
I’d also like to point out that the Effektiv Spenden co-working office (TEAMWORK) is a place where many EAs work and is available for EA meetups and events outside of office hours. The impact of this is difficult to quantify, but potentially significant and not accounted for when looking at donations alone.
For anyone tracking this thread: Distill Web Monitor is a handy plugin (Chrome, FF, Opera) that can track web pages for changes.
Thank you very much for sharing your insightful and motivating story.
But I’d like to advise to always be wary of survivorship bias. People who burned out are much less likely to write about it than someone who made it.
Parallel to this, I gained the confidence to decline job offers from EA-aligned organisations that I perceived as having less impact, despite their appeal. Some opportunities involved leading teams at EA-aligned startups. However, accepting them would have meant deviating from the top causes on my list. Instead of settling for the next available option, I aimed high, seeking roles that matched exceptionally well with my skills and the cause areas I had on the top of my list.
My 2 cents: Holding is status quo bias. In any situation buying OR selling is better, but you never know which. What you can manage is your risk exposure.
So I’d suggest for people who have significant parts of their wealth in crypto to sell to make sure they can’t get wiped out and for people who are under-invested by their assessment to buy.
An easy heuristic is to think about what proportion of you wealth you want to have in crypto and work towards that. I suggest buying / selling on a schedule or with limit orders to reduce variance.
Why is there no “Science” as default option under “Do you watch YouTube videos on any of these broad topics?”?
Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.
As you say that we shouldn’t ignore system 1 completely, just because it’s uninformed and unadjusted, we shouldn’t ignore utilitarianism.
I feel utilitarianism works quite well, when we stop and consider when what we’re doing feels off.
Relevant quote by Eliezer (https://twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/1497157447219232768):
Go three-quarters of the way from deontology to utilitarianism and then stop. You are now in the right place. Stay there at least until you have become a god.
Reminds me of the saying, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.”
Thank you very much for the interesting case study. It not only gives good insight into your method, but also showcases a promising intervention.
Do you know what the current state of it is? Is it being developed further? Is it looking for funding?
I’m confused by “Anti-Malaria Foundation”. Do you mean “Against Malaria Foundation” or is this an organization I’m not aware of?
Some of the links direct to Facebook and then to project for awesome. Can you change them to go to P4A directly?
Thanks for sharing!
Are the numbers comparable to GiveWell, or is one of them more conservative? One data point could be Malaria. Is the Benefit-to-cost ratio GiveWell calculates for e.g. AMF around 48 as well?
Malaria
Paper: Benefits and Costs of Scaling up Coverage and Use of Insecticide Treated Nets.
Benefit-to-cost ratio: 48.
Investment:
>Scale up coverage of long-lasting insecticidal bed nets coverage to 10 percentage points above the 2019 level. Use of chlorfenapir to offset insecticide resistance and social and behavioral change communication to increase the usage including hang-up campaigns.
I know I’m late to the party, but thanks for the data!
One question: Why does your number for 2019 so different from 80K’s estimates (https://80000hours.org/2021/08/effective-altruism-allocation-resources-cause-areas/)?
Quick heads up: Most of the RSVPs are on Meetup.com or LessWrong, so don’t worry about being alone. :)
I assume and (ChatGPT agrees) that it’s the tedious, unglamorous, and labor-intensive work. It probably comes from the Germany “schleppen” which is “heavy lifting”.
I advise against trying to read 1/day blindly, since there are monsters like A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation (nearly 17k words), one needs to set aside time for.
Belief: I thought Russia would not invade Ukraine until it actually happened.
Reasoning: Russia is intertwined too closely with the EU and especially Germany. The CIA is lying/exaggerating to disrupt the cooperation.
What was I (possibly) trying to protect: I might have held economic partnership and entwinement in too high regard. I also might have thought that war in Europe was a thing of the past.
I’m trying to keep track of when I change my mind, but it’s hard to notice when it happens and what exactly I thought before!
I think it would still make sense to add it because I assume many people (like me) will add it manually anyway, giving you more free-text to analyze. :)
Good catch! This series used to have a registration form, but this event is open. “Enable RSVPs” is not checked, that’s why you can’t “join” here on the forum.
Do the rules of P4A allow GiveWell? I remember it being unclear last year whether funds / regrantors were eligible.
Is there a way to donate in a tax-deductible way from Germany via Effektiv Spenden? Is that too late to set up?
I disagree. This was only the second time I’ve heard about Torres and it caused me to warn my contacts in Hannover about him who had not heard of him. They have since then come into contact with his writing.