Great suggestions, genuinely.
Now, let’s count off those who are already in such situations, many of whom are at the highest levels of EA, some who have been successfully navigating all this complexity for a decade. What are their secrets? Can there, maybe, be some lessons from them that can mitigate some of the ill-effects for those who in the future are still going to inevitably find themselves there?
Isn’t the move here something like, “If doom soon, then all pre-doom value nets to zero”?
Which tbh I’m not sure is wrong. If I expect doom tomorrow, all efforts today should be to reduce it; one night’s sleep not being bitten by mosquitoes doesn’t matter. Stretching this outward in time, doesn’t change the calculus much for a while, maybe about a lifetime or a few lifetimes or so. And a huge chunk of xrisk is concentrated in this century.