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Ozzie Gooen

Karma: 11,909

I’m currently researching forecasting and epistemics as part of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.

In­for­ma­tion-Dense Con­fer­ence Badges

Ozzie GooenJun 13, 2025, 5:52 PM
49 points
4 comments4 min readEA link
(ozziegooen.substack.com)

Defin­ing “Bul­lshit”: Limi­ta­tions and Re­lated Frame­works

Ozzie GooenJun 12, 2025, 10:43 PM
9 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(ozziegooen.substack.com)

Keep­ing “Epistemics” Broad: An Early Exploration

Ozzie GooenJun 3, 2025, 8:59 PM
11 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

A Defense of Mid-Tier EA/​LW Writing

Ozzie GooenJun 2, 2025, 5:36 PM
123 points
16 comments3 min readEA link
(ozziegooen.substack.com)

Nuanced Models for the In­fluence of Information

Ozzie GooenApr 10, 2025, 6:28 PM
19 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Fa­vorite Re­cent LLM Prompts & Tips?

Ozzie GooenMar 18, 2025, 4:25 AM
33 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

A Sketch of AI-Driven Epistemic Lock-In

Ozzie GooenMar 5, 2025, 10:40 PM
15 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

6 (Po­ten­tial) Mis­con­cep­tions about AI Intellectuals

Ozzie GooenFeb 14, 2025, 11:51 PM
30 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

$300 Fermi Model Competition

Ozzie GooenFeb 3, 2025, 7:47 PM
32 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

AI for Re­solv­ing Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions: An Early Exploration

Ozzie GooenJan 16, 2025, 9:40 PM
22 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Squig­gle AI

Ozzie GooenJan 3, 2025, 5:53 PM
84 points
13 comments8 min readEA link

En­hanc­ing Math­e­mat­i­cal Model­ing with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations

Ozzie GooenOct 28, 2024, 9:37 PM
11 points
3 comments15 min readEA link

My Cur­rent Claims and Cruxes on LLM Fore­cast­ing & Epistemics

Ozzie GooenJun 26, 2024, 12:40 AM
47 points
7 comments24 min readEA link

LLM-Se­cured Sys­tems: A Gen­eral-Pur­pose Tool For Struc­tured Transparency

Ozzie GooenJun 18, 2024, 12:20 AM
36 points
1 comment21 min readEA link

“Full Au­toma­tion” is a Slip­pery Metric

Ozzie GooenJun 11, 2024, 7:53 PM
20 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

A Case for Su­per­hu­man Gover­nance, us­ing AI

Ozzie GooenJun 7, 2024, 12:10 AM
59 points
26 comments10 min readEA link

Ideas for Next-Gen­er­a­tion Writ­ing Plat­forms, us­ing LLMs

Ozzie GooenJun 4, 2024, 6:40 PM
17 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

My Skep­ti­cal Opinion on the Repug­nant Conclusion

Ozzie GooenMay 27, 2024, 10:56 PM
16 points
22 comments7 min readEA link

Higher-Order Forecasts

Ozzie GooenMay 22, 2024, 9:49 PM
36 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Scorable Func­tions: A For­mat for Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

Ozzie GooenMay 21, 2024, 4:09 AM
46 points
8 comments8 min readEA link