Napkin math says no if you’re taking standard deduction but yes if you’re itemizing. Promo EV is about $1600, and you have to place $6,000 worth of bets to unlock it, so if your bets outperform a ~27% loss rate, this is profitable.
Be sure that the cash bets you place are no shorter than −200 odds because −200 is the minimum odds to qualify towards to rollover requirement. Also, the bet you place with the site credit should be on long odds because the free bet does not return its stake.
These opportunities exist because each book sets its odds independently. Sports books respond to new information asynchronously and the books’ different models can overweight the likelihood of certain outcomes and underweight the likelihood of others. From my experience, BetMGM and Fanduel often give favorable odds on favorites (short odds), and DraftKings, FoxBet, Barstool, and Twinspires give favorable odds on longshots.
Another reason these arbitrage and +EV betting opportunities exist is that US sports books are new, and the operators are prioritizing growth/debugging/marketing above the accuracy of their betting lines. Offshore sports books’ odds are far more similar to one another than US sports books’. I would predict that by 2025, the opportunity to make >5% +EV bets on US sports books will be a shadow of what it currently is.
These opportunities aren’t being taken advantage of for the same reason that blackjack players aren’t all card counters: It’s stressful to bet large amounts of money on high-variance events even when you know you’re a mathematical favorite. And once a casino is sure you’re a winning player, you’re no longer welcome to play.
For anyone with the stomach and the bankroll for making hundreds of these slightly profitable bets per week, the opportunity is incredible until you get limited. With 60% confidence, I would estimate that someone with a liquid bankroll of $100,000 could profit between $40,000 and $200,000 within four months of advantage sports betting (8-12 hours/week). All they would need to do is bet on all >2% +EV betting opportunities that OddsJam suggests (with a tight market width/confidence interval), and use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion calculator to responsibly size their bets.
I would recommend that anyone considering this path be selective about suspicious-looking bets. Player props and alternate lines can be red flags for books to limit you quicker. If I lived in a state with legalized online sports betting I would 100% be pursuing this; I’m happy to answer more questions or set up a Zoom meeting via Calendly if anyone is interested!
Sites are more likely to restrict the amount you can bet if you’re betting on an outcome the site has little confidence in (e.g., how likely is a certain rookie to collect over 2.5 rebounds). Sites do this to protect themselves from smart bettors who may know more than the site’s model. My advice is to try to bet on “main lines”, popular offerings that sites have high confidence in their odds of (e.g., how likely are the Rams to win this Sunday’s SuperBowl).
If a site restricts you from betting the promo max on any event, try calling customer support to figure out why you’re being limited as a first-time bettor. Hopefully, they can un-limit you or allow you to make multiple bonus-eligible smaller bets to get the most out of the promo. Good luck!
Thanks so much for sharing these tips! With regards to the info on OddsJam:
I use the app “Todoreminder” to remind myself to cancel subscriptions like this.
You can always buy a $10 visa gift card online and register with that instead of your credit card if you’re worried about forgetting to cancel your subscription.
If you’re using OddsJam premium, I wouldn’t worry about betting on specific sports. OddsJam will show you where the best bets are for the sports book you’re betting with accounting for the vig. Generally speaking though, you’re right that two-way markets (meaning only two outcomes can happen) take less vig than futures markets (e.g., the winner of this year’s NBA championship) or three-way markets (like soccer where a game can end in a tie).
If a free bet returns the stake, it will pay you the principle of the bet plus your profit when you win. If a free bet does not return the stake, it will only pay you your profit.
Example:
A $1,000 free bet that returns the stake won at +100 or 1-1 odds pays back $2,000 (the $1,000 you bet, plus the $1,000 you won).
A $1,000 free bet that does not return the stake won at +100 or 1-1 odds pays back only $1,000 (just the $1,000 that you won).
Certain sites will list whether a free bet returns the stake in their promo terms. For other sites, you can read reviews or talk to customer support. Since it sounds like you’re close to CO, you can also check out my spreadsheet where I summarize the promo terms of each book I used on the trip.
Interesting and great to hear! The bets I submitted on Twinspires and Bally Bet weren’t approved for the whole amount, though customer support did let me make new risk-free bets with the remainder of my deposit. This may be because I looked suspicious betting from the same AirBNB as my friends, or I may have picked more obscure bets than you, or the sites may just be inconsistent.
Great point: If you’re allowed a free bet first that can be used separately from a cash bet (as is the case with Caesars’ new offer,) there is no reason to bet on long odds with your cash bet.
Thank you for a great tip, this was not the case when I bet with Caesar’s just three weeks ago. It appears that the terms of these offers can change very frequently, I’ll edit this post when I get home to recommend that a participant carefully read the current terms and conditions before depositing/betting.
I believe both PlayMaverick and Super Book give credit that doesn’t return the stake, and credit that can only be used to subsidize cash wagers. This means the entire bet should be used on long odds, since the bettor has strong incentive to place site credit on long odds (higher EV) and only mild incentive to place cash wagers on short odds (lower variance).
Update: It turns out these sports books aren’t as friendly to non-US citizens as expected. I don’t know what every site’s policy is, but the following sites’ policies suggest that non-US citizens living outside the US shouldn’t bother looking into traveling to the US to do this:
Barstool – need valid SSN and US Passport / ID
Fanduel – need SSN and proof of US address
Tipico – must be US resident
BetMGM – need US ID and proof of US address
Pointsbet – non-US passport acceptable, need proof of US address
Play Sugarhouse – need US ID and possibly SSN
Twinspires – must be US resident
Superbook – seems possible, non-US passport sufficient
Good catch, the first bet should be long odds. Tipico’s site credit returned the stake for me, so the second bet really should be made using short odds. I’ll confirm that this is still the case with customer support tomorrow. The stake-return feature was why I categorized Tipico as a $400+ EV/hour book.
Sure thing, it’ll look similar to the NJ list.
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post and very high-variance for non-itemizers), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds), BetFred (short odds on first bet, long odds on free bet).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds), Bally Bet (both bets on long odds), Play Maverick (bet on long odds), Elite Sportsbook (garbage software that will test your patience, bet on long odds)
$50-150/hour and low variance
Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Wynnbet, BetRivers (you can bet both sides of the same game).
Not worth doing:
Betway (offer recently pulled), BetWildwood, BetMonarch, Circa, SBK, TheScore, Sky Ute, Sportsbetting.com, Playup (due to promotion downgrade), Maximbet (due to rollover increase),
Unfortunately a few of the best CO offers got pulled or downgraded since this post was written eight days ago (Maximbet: Down from a $2,000 deposit match with a 1x rollover to a $2,000 deposit match with a 3x rollover. WynnBet: Down from a $1,000 risk-free first bet to a “bet $10, earn $200 site credit win or lose.” Playup: Down from a $750 stake-returning deposit match $200 deposit match.)
This trend will probably continue as people like us take advantage of these offers, then never bet another dime. DraftKings used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Caesars used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Sports Illustrated used to offer a $7,500 risk free first bet. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of opportunity in CO!
Hey Matt, it’s awesome that you two are interested in participating! Here are the promos I’d recommend doing in NJ grouped by EV/hour for those taking the standard deduction:
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post), Wynnbet (both bets on long odds), PlaySugarshouse (bet on short odds), Playup (bet on short odds), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds),
$50-150/hour and low variance
Bet365, Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Golden Nugget (first bet short odds, free bet long odds)
Not worth doing:
Betway, Borgata, Hard Rock, TheScore, Unibet, Resorts Sportsbook
Thanks for bringing this up, I feel like such an analysis could enable many more EAs to participate. If you take the standard deduction you basically have to ask yourself “Is a promo worth it if individually, bets won are worth my marginal tax rate % less than they actually pay out?”
For example, lets say your marginal tax rate (including state tax) is 28% and you’re considering the Wynnbet $1,000 risk free first bet promo for site credit that does not return the stake. If you make your first bet and free bet at +100 odds you have:
(.5 win probability) ($1000 profit *.72 take home) +(.5 lose probability)((-$1000 loss but unlock free bet) + (.5 free bet win probability)($1000 free bet profit *.72 take home))
=.5(720) + .5(-1000 + 360) = $40 EV (compared to the $250 EV of making these same bets if itemizing.)
This is profitable but not worth the time. However this is also not an efficient betting strategy.
Let’s say instead you make your first bet and your free bet at +300 odds. The math would look like:
(.25 win probability) ($3000 profit *.72 take home) = $540
(.75 lose probability) [(-$1000 loss but unlock free bet) + ((.25 win probability)($3000 profit on risk free bet *.72 take home) + .75 lose probability (0 because it was a free bet))] = $-352.5
Total is $540-$352.5 = $187.5 EV ( compared to the roughly $562.5 EV of making these same bets if itemizing.)
In theory this is potentially worth the time, depending on the opportunity cost of the bettor. You will have to pay taxes on aggregate profits even if you itemize so this $187.5 after tax EV return is better than it looks. Many caveats though:
Risk of after-tax loss is much higher. This matters to the extent that we care about the experience of the EAs placing these bets, and humans hate the realistic possibility of losing thousands of dollars.
Tighter margins puts more strain on our assumptions. If bets are losing to the vig by 7% on a certain book (due to an absence of beatable lines) rather than breaking even, these bets have a chance to be unprofitable and a high chance of no longer being worth the time.
The bettor needs to be very aware of the tax implications of her bet. The variance of a bet actually effects the expected value of that bet, since only profit is taxed and losses cannot be written off (basically, you’re incentivized to lose as infrequently as possible.) This works fairly well for deposit match promos that return the stake, and risk free first bets for site credit that returns the stake, as these bets can be made efficiently on short odds.
Overall, I think the risk free first bets that do not return the stake are not worth doing, and the deposit match bonuses with more than 1x rollover requirements, or that match 50% or less are not worth doing.
Risk free bets win or lose seem that give non-stake-returning site credit seem worth doing but with significantly lower EV, as do 100% 1x rollover deposit matches that give non-stake-returning site credit
100% 1x rollover deposit matches that give stake-returning site credit and risk free first bets that give stake-returning credit seem like they’re still worth doing (your hourly rate when making these bets on short odds is reduced by a bit more than your marginal tax rate. So if $300ish/hour is still worth it for you, these are probably worth doing.)
Very cool to have a former professional in the thread! I didn’t know that affiliates got uncapped rakeback; it totally stands to reason that with so much opportunity in the US market, one could reach a scale of bets where even 1% of their volume per site would represent more money than the promos offer.
I believe OddsJam weights sharp sites like pinnacle, bookmaker, circa, and betonline to create their “perfect line.” I still think OddsJam is worth getting since they will provide data on all events, even if they have low or no confidence on what the fair price should be. The offshore books like pinnacle don’t always offer the range of bets on US sports that sites like Fanduel and BetMGM do. Sometimes the best odds on offer are obscure alternate lines from a few inefficient books. With OddsJam you’re able to see all the sites’ odds side by side and updated in real time.
I should also add: for risk-free first bet promos where the free bet returns the stake like Fanduel and Barstool, your first real-money bet should be at very long odds because a free bet that returns the stake is as good as cash (providing even more incentive to unlock the free bet as often as possible.)
Yes, this was actually part of what I discussed with Robirahman yesterday. So the Pointsbet promo has two parts—one part is a $500 fixed odds risk free first bet for credit that doesn’t return the stake. For this part, you can just use OddsJam and look for the best long odds bets for both the initial bet and the site credit.
The second part is a $1,500 PointsBet. This is a gimmicky betting type that has a higher house edge. In a PointsBet, the amount by which your bet is right or wrong determines what multiple of your bet you win or owe. For example, if you bet $10 on a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards in a football game and they throw for 201 yards, you win $10 because they threw 1 yard more than the over, but if they throw for 205 yards, you win $50 because they threw 5 yards more than the over. Similarly, if the quarterback threw for 160 yards you would lose $400 since they threw for 40 yards below the betting line.
The best way to maximize your EV on the $1,500 risk free PointsBet is to find a hockey or soccer game where the betting line for a team is over 1 or 1.05 goals (or for a team’s first period/first half goals.) This way, if you lose your first bet, you lose the full $1,500. If you tried to bet $1,500 on the over 200 passing yards example I used earlier, PointsBet wouldn’t let you, since you stand to lose $300,000 if the quarterback threw for 0 yards. And if you bet a denomination lower than $1,500 (say $7.50,) most of the time you lose your bet you would not lose the full $1,500 and you would only be given a free bet of what you lost, which is only a fraction of the total promo value.
If you lose your first PointsBet, you be given site credit that does not return the stake that can be used on a fixed odds (normal) wager. Here, you can once again use OddsJam to find a great longshot as usual.
Let me know if anything is unclear, or whether there are other specific promos that you have questions about. I debated writing up a list of the best ways to game each promo, and what you have to keep an eye out for (like actually opting into FoxBet’s risk free bet through the promos page instead of through the account signup page) but I figured the post was long already and brevity would be more attractive to most readers.
A brilliant idea, both for community building and fundraising! I would want to help coordinate these trips in any way that I could; I just accepted a role at Open Phil and I plan to lean on their network, but I would also love to connect with more EAs from all over to scale this idea up.
It’s funny that you mention this David, because Robi Rahman called me last night about best practices (which gave me great info for updating this post) and today he coached a group of 5 DC-residing EAs through this process in Virginia.
To anyone reading: please please message me if you want to organize a field trip and have any questions about the best way to go about it (from convincing people, to logistics, to real-time betting advice.)
Great clarification. What I meant to say was:
If the first bet unlocks the free bet whether it wins or loses, you should make the first bet on short odds (because you unlock the free bet regardless of outcome, and bets with shorter odds have lower variance and lower expected tax liability) but make the free bet on long odds (because the EV is higher the longer the odds for free bets that do not return their stake).
In the case that you have to lose your first bet to unlock the free bet, but the free bet returns the stake, the first bet should be made using long odds (to allow you to unlock the free bet as often as possible) but the free bet should be made using short odds (because bets that return the stake have the same EV regardless of odds, and shorter odds helps lower variance and expected tax liability.)
When I bet with SI it was similar to DraftKings, but now they’ve changed the promo to be a bit worse for those taking the standard deduction. You have to place 30 $10 bets to unlock 30 $10 free bets that do not return they’re stake
Strategy should be short odds for the cash bets, long odds for the free bets. Still worth doing, just a bit cumbersome. Thanks for spotting that!