Here are some cruxes that I don’t see addressed as much:
If there is a future with sentient beings living in it, are their lives, on average, likely to be net positive or net negative?
This weighs over all existential risk cause areas. If preventing existential risk is possible, but the future is net-negative, then this intervention may be harmful, due to increasing s-risks.
How much will the governance of developed countries influence the governance of underdeveloped countries?
A country that does not value net welfare at all but instead dominance and power can transfer its values to the rest of the world through popular media and economic dependency. If this happens, it could lead to a future where coordination on issues becomes difficult, if not impossible.
Here are some cruxes that I don’t see addressed as much:
If there is a future with sentient beings living in it, are their lives, on average, likely to be net positive or net negative?
This weighs over all existential risk cause areas. If preventing existential risk is possible, but the future is net-negative, then this intervention may be harmful, due to increasing s-risks.
How much will the governance of developed countries influence the governance of underdeveloped countries?
A country that does not value net welfare at all but instead dominance and power can transfer its values to the rest of the world through popular media and economic dependency. If this happens, it could lead to a future where coordination on issues becomes difficult, if not impossible.
Hi wyatt there is some work on number 1 (although agreed needs a lot more). I keep posting this stack so maybe i should curate it into a sequence.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/wmqLbtMMraAv5Gyqn
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W4vuHbj7Enzdg5g8y/two-tools-for-rethinking-existential-risk-2
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zuQeTaqrjveSiSMYo/a-proposed-hierarchy-of-longtermist-concepts
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fi3Abht55xHGQ4Pha/longtermist-especially-x-risk-terminology-has-biasing
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wqmY98m3yNs6TiKeL/parfit-singer-aliens
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zLi3MbMCTtCv9ttyz/formalizing-extinction-risk-reduction-vs-longtermism
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58e2a71bf7e0ab3ba886cea3/t/5a8c5ddc24a6947bb63a9bc9/1519148520220/Todd+Miller.evpsych+of+ETI.BioTheory.2017.pdf
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mzT2ZQGNce8AywAx3
https://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/2012/03/are-pain-and-pleasure-equally-energy.html