“virtually certain” maybe seems a bit strong to me
6% chance of Metaculus existing in 2100, from anthropic reasoning
1% chance of user alive in 2100, from eyeballing actuarial life tables
Given independence, that’s ~0.05%, and I’d say conditional on that combination of events obtaining, maybe 15% chance the user cares (not caring includes not just a change in preferences but also a failure to fulfil the preconditions for caring, such as not remembering the prediction, being too senile to understand things, etc). So something in the order of one in 10k.
6% chance of Metaculus existing in 2100, from anthropic reasoning
1% chance of user alive in 2100, from eyeballing actuarial life tables
Given independence, that’s ~0.05%, and I’d say conditional on that combination of events obtaining, maybe 15% chance the user cares (not caring includes not just a change in preferences but also a failure to fulfil the preconditions for caring, such as not remembering the prediction, being too senile to understand things, etc). So something in the order of one in 10k.
I think somewhat higher chance of users being alive than that, because of the big correlated stuff that EAs care about.