itās virtually certain that the user will be dead by 2100, Metaculus wonāt exist by then, or MIPs will have ceased to be valuable to them
This is a good point that in retrospect seems obvious, and Iām a bit disappointed I hadnāt thought of it when I previously considered this issue or saw the comment Linch quoted. (That said, āvirtually certainā maybe seems a bit strong to me.)
āvirtually certainā maybe seems a bit strong to me
6% chance of Metaculus existing in 2100, from anthropic reasoning
1% chance of user alive in 2100, from eyeballing actuarial life tables
Given independence, thatās ~0.05%, and Iād say conditional on that combination of events obtaining, maybe 15% chance the user cares (not caring includes not just a change in preferences but also a failure to fulfil the preconditions for caring, such as not remembering the prediction, being too senile to understand things, etc). So something in the order of one in 10k.
This is a good point that in retrospect seems obvious, and Iām a bit disappointed I hadnāt thought of it when I previously considered this issue or saw the comment Linch quoted. (That said, āvirtually certainā maybe seems a bit strong to me.)
6% chance of Metaculus existing in 2100, from anthropic reasoning
1% chance of user alive in 2100, from eyeballing actuarial life tables
Given independence, thatās ~0.05%, and Iād say conditional on that combination of events obtaining, maybe 15% chance the user cares (not caring includes not just a change in preferences but also a failure to fulfil the preconditions for caring, such as not remembering the prediction, being too senile to understand things, etc). So something in the order of one in 10k.
I think somewhat higher chance of users being alive than that, because of the big correlated stuff that EAs care about.