I’m bullish on Solar+storage. But I think that it will take a while to adapt the grid, so I think it will take at least a decade before we can even think about phasing out fossils.
Ok—so there would be a phase where fossil fuels are declining, but renewables can’t compensate yet, if I am to understand correctly.
What consequences do you think this gap should have?
I’m interested by the effect this might have on the economy, since there appears to be a very strong link between energy and GDP, at the global level (see for instance this report, p.11 to 16).
No, I think there is a phase where everyone wished they had renewables but they can’t yet get them so they still use fossil fuels. I think energy production will stay roughly constant or increase but the way we produce it will change slower than we would have hoped.
I don’t think we will have a serious decline in energy production.
Ok, this is interesting. Your take is that energy production will stay constant or increase.
In that case, what makes you think that the International Energy Agency is wrong in saying that fossil fuels production will peak within 5 years, and then probably decline ?
For instance, where would the additional oil come from to compensate for the decline of, say, Russia (announced their peak in 2019) or Saudi Arabia (announced their peak for 2027) ?
(for the record, my personal take is that it’s likely that this would lead to a decline in global energy production since fossil fuels represent 85% of energy production—unless there is a massive increase in renewables that you do not see happening soon)
I don’t have any strong opinions on that. There is a good chance I’m just uninformed and the IEA is right. My intuition is just that countries don’t like it if their energy gets more expensive, so they’ll keep digging for coal, oil or gas as long as renewables aren’t cheaper.
I was more wondering about the fact that coal, oil and gas are finite, and getting harder and harder to extract, so it won’t be exactly a choice. The IEA mentioned that fossil fuels would peak even if climate policies are not followed. But yeah if we could extract an inifinite amount of fossil fuels we’d probably do that—and use cheap solar on top of it for more electricity.
If you’re curious about energy depletion, I tried to adress that in this post.
I personally don’t think we can replace fossils with renewables at scale, for reasons explained in the post (renewables have worse properties than storable, dense liquid oil, and there’s not enough metals to build everything).
Anyway, I think we’ll have more news on that front seeing how we fare in the next winters with the current energy crisis.
It’s worth pointing out that the IEA is actually most famous for almost always underestimating renewable energy uptake. So if even they think fossil fuels are on the way out, I’m inclined to think they’re right.
Interesting !
I’m curious: do you have any thoughts about the impact that the decline of fossil fuels may have during these decades?
For instance, the recent claims by the International Energy Agency that fossil fuels should peak within 5 years ? (i have my own thoughts on the topic but I’d like to know how you see things going)
I’m bullish on Solar+storage. But I think that it will take a while to adapt the grid, so I think it will take at least a decade before we can even think about phasing out fossils.
Ok—so there would be a phase where fossil fuels are declining, but renewables can’t compensate yet, if I am to understand correctly.
What consequences do you think this gap should have?
I’m interested by the effect this might have on the economy, since there appears to be a very strong link between energy and GDP, at the global level (see for instance this report, p.11 to 16).
No, I think there is a phase where everyone wished they had renewables but they can’t yet get them so they still use fossil fuels. I think energy production will stay roughly constant or increase but the way we produce it will change slower than we would have hoped.
I don’t think we will have a serious decline in energy production.
Ok, this is interesting. Your take is that energy production will stay constant or increase.
In that case, what makes you think that the International Energy Agency is wrong in saying that fossil fuels production will peak within 5 years, and then probably decline ?
For instance, where would the additional oil come from to compensate for the decline of, say, Russia (announced their peak in 2019) or Saudi Arabia (announced their peak for 2027) ?
(for the record, my personal take is that it’s likely that this would lead to a decline in global energy production since fossil fuels represent 85% of energy production—unless there is a massive increase in renewables that you do not see happening soon)
I don’t have any strong opinions on that. There is a good chance I’m just uninformed and the IEA is right. My intuition is just that countries don’t like it if their energy gets more expensive, so they’ll keep digging for coal, oil or gas as long as renewables aren’t cheaper.
Oh, yes, they’ll try.
I was more wondering about the fact that coal, oil and gas are finite, and getting harder and harder to extract, so it won’t be exactly a choice. The IEA mentioned that fossil fuels would peak even if climate policies are not followed. But yeah if we could extract an inifinite amount of fossil fuels we’d probably do that—and use cheap solar on top of it for more electricity.
If you’re curious about energy depletion, I tried to adress that in this post.
Interesting. Let’s hope they are right and we are able to replace fossils with renewables fast enough.
I personally don’t think we can replace fossils with renewables at scale, for reasons explained in the post (renewables have worse properties than storable, dense liquid oil, and there’s not enough metals to build everything).
Anyway, I think we’ll have more news on that front seeing how we fare in the next winters with the current energy crisis.
It’s worth pointing out that the IEA is actually most famous for almost always underestimating renewable energy uptake. So if even they think fossil fuels are on the way out, I’m inclined to think they’re right.