Yeah, I think I now understand your point, and that it updates me towards thinking collapse is now likelier than one might think, based on historical base rates, if one was ignoring this argument.
Though I’d also maybe say “There was a factor that increased the risk of collapses in the past—namely, external invasions or raids weakening states, and contributing to their collapse (not counting cases in which the states were “conquered”). And this factor is probably less likely in the present and future, as the rate of invasions and raids has declined and the world has become more unified. This means the risk of collapse in future may be lower than one would think if one ignored this fact.”
And at first glance, that effect seems like it could easily be stronger than the other one.
So overall, it seems like changes with respect to “conquests, invasions, and raids” (taken together) could easily have decreased rather than increased the chance of collapse. Which made it feel a bit odd to me that you highlighted one side of that story, but not the other.
Yes, and I would include a significant discussion of this in a longer version of this post, or a paper. However, I think we mostly disagree about what people’s priors or prior models were in choosing what to highlight. (I see no-one using historical records of invasions / conquered nations independent of when it contributed to a later collapse, as relevant to discussions of collapse.)
Yeah, I think I now understand your point, and that it updates me towards thinking collapse is now likelier than one might think, based on historical base rates, if one was ignoring this argument.
Though I’d also maybe say “There was a factor that increased the risk of collapses in the past—namely, external invasions or raids weakening states, and contributing to their collapse (not counting cases in which the states were “conquered”). And this factor is probably less likely in the present and future, as the rate of invasions and raids has declined and the world has become more unified. This means the risk of collapse in future may be lower than one would think if one ignored this fact.”
And at first glance, that effect seems like it could easily be stronger than the other one.
So overall, it seems like changes with respect to “conquests, invasions, and raids” (taken together) could easily have decreased rather than increased the chance of collapse. Which made it feel a bit odd to me that you highlighted one side of that story, but not the other.
Does that make sense?
Yes, and I would include a significant discussion of this in a longer version of this post, or a paper. However, I think we mostly disagree about what people’s priors or prior models were in choosing what to highlight. (I see no-one using historical records of invasions / conquered nations independent of when it contributed to a later collapse, as relevant to discussions of collapse.)