I’d be comfortable with 1% - I’d take a bet at 100:1 conditional on land warfare in China or the US with a clear victor, they winner still would at the most extreme, restore a modified modern national government controlled by citizens that had heavy restrictions on what it was allowed to do, following the post-WWII model in Japan and Germany. (I’d take the bet, but in that case, I wouldn’t expect both parties to survive to collect on the bet, whichever way it ends.)
That’s because the post-WWII international system is built with structures that almost entirely prevent wars of conquest, and while I don’t see that system as being strong, I also don’t think the weaknesses are ones leading to those norms breaking down.
But maybe, despite sticking to my earlier claim, the post-WWII replacement of Japan’s emperor with a democracy is exactly the class of case we should be discussing as an example relevant to the more general question of whether civilizations are conquered rather than collapse. And the same logic would apply to Iraq, and other nations the US “helped” along the road to democracy, since they were at least occasionally—though by no means always—failing states. And Iraq was near collapse because of conflict with Iran and sanctions, not because of internal decay. (I’m less knowledgeable about the stability of Japanese culture pre-WWII.)
I’d be comfortable with 1% - I’d take a bet at 100:1 conditional on land warfare in China or the US with a clear victor, they winner still would at the most extreme, restore a modified modern national government controlled by citizens that had heavy restrictions on what it was allowed to do, following the post-WWII model in Japan and Germany. (I’d take the bet, but in that case, I wouldn’t expect both parties to survive to collect on the bet, whichever way it ends.)
That’s because the post-WWII international system is built with structures that almost entirely prevent wars of conquest, and while I don’t see that system as being strong, I also don’t think the weaknesses are ones leading to those norms breaking down.
But maybe, despite sticking to my earlier claim, the post-WWII replacement of Japan’s emperor with a democracy is exactly the class of case we should be discussing as an example relevant to the more general question of whether civilizations are conquered rather than collapse. And the same logic would apply to Iraq, and other nations the US “helped” along the road to democracy, since they were at least occasionally—though by no means always—failing states. And Iraq was near collapse because of conflict with Iran and sanctions, not because of internal decay. (I’m less knowledgeable about the stability of Japanese culture pre-WWII.)
Interesting, thanks for the response :)